2013-2018 年包奇州麻疹病例的描述性流行病学。

Descriptive epidemiology of measles cases in Bauchi State, 2013-2018.

机构信息

Nigerian Field Epidemiology and Laboratory and Training Programme, Abuja, Nigeria.

Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2021 Jul 5;21(1):1311. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-11063-6.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-021-11063-6

PMID:34225675

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8256615/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Measles accounts for high morbidity and mortality in children, especially in developing countries. In 2017, about 11,190 measles cases were recorded in Nigeria, including Bauchi State. The aim of this study was to describe the trend and burden of measles in Bauchi State, Nigeria.

METHOD

We analyzed secondary data of measles cases extracted from the Measles Surveillance data system in Bauchi State from January 2013 to June 2018. The variables extracted included age, sex, doses of vaccination, case location and outcome. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and multiplicative time series model (α = 0.05).

RESULTS

A total of 4935 suspected measles cases with an average annual incidence rate of 15.3 per 100,000 population and 57 deaths (Case Fatality Rate, CFR: 1.15%) were reported. Among the reported cases, 294 (6%;) were laboratory-confirmed, while clinically compatible and epi-linked cases were 402 (8%) and 3879 (70%), respectively. Of the 4935 measles cases, 2576 (52%) were males, 440 (9%) were under 1 year of age, and 3289 (67%) were between 1 and 4 years. The average annual incidence rate among the 1-4 year age-group was 70.3 per 100,000 population. The incidence rate was lowest in 2018 with 2.1 per 100,000 and highest in 2015 with 26.2 per 100,000 population. The measles cases variation index per quarter was highest in quarter 1 (198.86), followed by quarter 2 (62.21) and least in quarter 4 (10.37) of every year. Only 889 (18%) of the measles cases received at least one dose of measles vaccine, 2701 (54.7%) had no history of measles vaccination while 1346 (27.3%) had unknown vaccination status. The fatality of measles in Bauchi State were significantly associated with being under 5 years (AOR = 5.58; 95%CI: 2.19-14.22) and not having at least a dose of MCV (OR = 7.14; 95%CI: 3.70-14.29).

CONCLUSION

Measles burden remains high in Bauchi State despite a decrease in its incidence over the study years. Most of the cases occurred in the first quarter of every year. Improved routine measles surveillance for prompt case management could reduce the burden of the disease in Bauchi State.

摘要

背景

麻疹在儿童中发病率和死亡率较高，尤其是在发展中国家。2017 年，尼日利亚有 11190 例麻疹病例，包括包奇州。本研究旨在描述尼日利亚包奇州麻疹的趋势和负担。

方法

我们分析了 2013 年 1 月至 2018 年 6 月从包奇州麻疹监测数据系统中提取的麻疹病例的二级数据。提取的变量包括年龄、性别、疫苗接种剂量、病例位置和结局。数据采用描述性统计、逻辑回归和乘法时间序列模型（α=0.05）进行分析。

结果

共报告 4935 例疑似麻疹病例，平均发病率为每 10 万人 15.3 例，死亡 57 例（病死率：1.15%）。报告的病例中，实验室确诊病例 294 例（6%），临床符合病例 402 例（8%），Epi 链接病例 3879 例（70%）。在 4935 例麻疹病例中，男性 2576 例（52%），年龄<1 岁的病例 440 例（9%），年龄在 1-4 岁之间的病例 3289 例（67%）。1-4 岁年龄组的年平均发病率为每 10 万人 70.3 例。发病率最低的是 2018 年，每 10 万人 2.1 例，最高的是 2015 年，每 10 万人 26.2 例。每年每季度麻疹病例变异指数最高的是第 1 季度（198.86），其次是第 2 季度（62.21），最低的是第 4 季度（10.37）。只有 889 例（18%）麻疹病例至少接种了一剂麻疹疫苗，2701 例（54.7%）无麻疹疫苗接种史，1346 例（27.3%）疫苗接种状况未知。包奇州麻疹的病死率与<5 岁（AOR=5.58；95%CI：2.19-14.22）和未至少接种一剂 MCV（OR=7.14；95%CI：3.70-14.29）显著相关。