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与天气相关的参数对新冠疫情传播的影响——孟加拉国的情况

Influences of weather-related parameters on the spread of Covid-19 pandemic - The scenario of Bangladesh.

作者信息

Arefin Md Arman, Nabi Md Nurun, Islam Mohammad Towhidul, Islam Md Shamiul

机构信息

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh.

School of Engineering and Technology, Central Queensland University, WA 6000, Australia.

出版信息

Urban Clim. 2021 Jul;38:100903. doi: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100903. Epub 2021 Jun 30.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Weather parameters such as temperature, humidity, air quality index and wind speed are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases like Covid-19. Therefore, this study aims to discuss and analyse the relation between weather parameters and the spread of Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) from the perspective of Bangladesh.

METHODS

Correlation among weather parameters and infection and death rate were established using several graphical plots and wind rose diagrams, Kendall and Spearman correlation and appropriate discussion with relevancy and reference. Information presented in this study has been extracted from 1st April 2020 to 30th December 2020.

RESULTS

Analyses show that with the decrease in temperature, infection rate increased significantly. Also, the number of infection increases as wind speed increases. As the absolute humidity rate of Bangladesh is almost constant; therefore, the authors are unable to predict any relation of absolute humidity with the number of infection. Further, the prediction for the number of infections based on the wind direction for the several regions of seven divisions in Bangladesh is vulnerable for the upcoming several months.

CONCLUSION

This study has analysed the dependency of weather parameters on a number of infections along with predicting the upcoming danger zones

摘要

目的

温度、湿度、空气质量指数和风速等气象参数是影响新冠肺炎等传染病的重要因素。因此,本研究旨在从孟加拉国的角度探讨和分析气象参数与冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)传播之间的关系。

方法

利用多个图表和风向玫瑰图、肯德尔和斯皮尔曼相关性以及相关且有参考价值的适当讨论,建立气象参数与感染率和死亡率之间的相关性。本研究中的信息提取自2020年4月1日至2020年12月31日。

结果

分析表明,随着温度降低,感染率显著上升。此外,感染人数随风速增加而增加。由于孟加拉国的绝对湿度率几乎恒定,因此作者无法预测绝对湿度与感染人数之间的任何关系。此外,基于孟加拉国七个分区多个地区风向对感染人数的预测在未来几个月内存在不确定性。

结论

本研究分析了气象参数对感染人数的依赖性,并预测了即将出现的危险区域。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d14/8241598/b6bb1279866e/gr1_lrg.jpg

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