Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas/ Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
Programa de Pós-graduação em clima e ambiente (CLIAMB), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil; Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
Acta Trop. 2021 Oct;222:106032. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106032. Epub 2021 Jul 7.
Vector-borne diseases are some of the leading public health problems in the tropics, and their association with climatic anomalies is well known. The current study aimed to evaluate the trend of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus, Amazonas-Brazil, and its relationship with climatic extremes (ENSO). The study was carried out using a series of secondary data from notifications on the occurrence of several American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus between 1990 and 2017 obtained through the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Data regarding temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation for this municipality were derived from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) websites. Coherence and wavelet phase analysis was conducted to measure the degree of relationship of the occurrence of the cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that during La Niña events, an increase in American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) cases is anticipated after the increase in rainfall from November, resulting in a more significant number of cases in January, February, and March. It was observed that in the municipality of Manaus, the dynamics of ACL cases are directly influenced by ENSO events that affect environmental variables such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity. Therefore, climatic variations consequently change the ACL incidence dynamics, leading to subsequent increases or decreases in the incidence of ACL cases in the area.
虫媒传染病是热带地区一些主要的公共卫生问题，其与气候异常的关联是众所周知的。本研究旨在评估巴西亚马逊州玛瑙斯市的美国皮肤利什曼病病例的趋势及其与气候极值（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）的关系。该研究使用了一系列从 1990 年至 2017 年玛瑙斯市发生的若干美国皮肤利什曼病病例报告的二级数据，这些数据是通过国家传染病报告系统获得的。该市的温度、相对湿度和降水数据来自国家气象局（INMET）和美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的网站。为了衡量皮肤利什曼病病例发生与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的关系程度，进行了一致性和小波相位分析。结果表明，在拉尼娜事件期间，预计在 11 月降雨量增加后，美国皮肤利什曼病（ACL）病例会增加，导致 1 月、2 月和 3 月的病例数更多。观察到在玛瑙斯市，ACL 病例的动态直接受到影响降水、温度和湿度等环境变量的 ENSO 事件的影响。因此，气候变化会改变 ACL 发病率的动态，导致该地区 ACL 病例的发病率随后增加或减少。
