Ávila-Jiménez Julián, Gutiérrez Juan David, Altamiranda-Saavedra Mariano
Maestria en Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Tunja, Boyacá, Colombia.
Facultad de Ciencias Médicas y de la Salud, Instituto Masira, Universidad de Santander, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia.
Acta Trop. 2024 Jan;249:107060. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.107060. Epub 2023 Nov 8.
Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans by a protozoan parasite through sandfly vectors and multiple vertebrate hosts. The Pan American Health Organization reported a declining trend in cases, with Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Nicaragua, and Bolivia having the most cases in 2020. There are still knowledge gaps in transmission and the parasite-host relationship. Ecological niche modeling has been used to study host-vector relationships, disease dynamics, and the impact of climate change. Understanding these aspects can aid in early surveillance and vector control strategies. The potential distribution of five host species associated with the transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) was modeled. Occurrence data were collected for each host species, and environmental variables were used to build the models. Climatic data from El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral episodes were used to compare the predicted distributions. Additionally, the potential distributions of four vector species were compared to identify overlaps with host species. Niche analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in vector niches across episodes and to identify host-vector pairs based on niche overlap in geographic and environmental spaces. After spatial thinning, 467 records were obtained, and 1,190 candidate models were evaluated for each species. Results showed the distribution of occurrences in the environmental space, highlighting a high risk of extrapolation beyond the calibration areas. Movement-Oriented Parity analysis revealed distinct distribution patterns under different climate conditions, with areas of environmental similarity identified. Bradypus variegatus exhibited a broad potential distribution, while Dasypus novemcinctus and Didelphis marsupialis had more restricted ranges. Sylvilagus braziliensis covered most of the Neotropics. Our study provides valuable insights into ecological niches and geographic ranges of these species, contributing to the understanding of cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.
利什曼病是一种人畜共患病，由原生动物寄生虫通过白蛉媒介和多种脊椎动物宿主传播给人类。泛美卫生组织报告称病例呈下降趋势，2020年巴西、哥伦比亚、秘鲁、尼加拉瓜和玻利维亚的病例最多。在传播以及寄生虫与宿主的关系方面仍存在知识空白。生态位建模已被用于研究宿主与媒介的关系、疾病动态以及气候变化的影响。了解这些方面有助于早期监测和媒介控制策略。对与皮肤利什曼病（CL）传播相关的五种宿主物种的潜在分布进行了建模。收集了每种宿主物种的出现数据，并使用环境变量构建模型。使用来自厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和中性事件的气候数据来比较预测分布。此外，比较了四种媒介物种的潜在分布，以确定与宿主物种的重叠情况。进行了生态位分析，以评估不同事件期间媒介生态位的变化，并根据地理和环境空间中的生态位重叠确定宿主 - 媒介对。经过空间稀疏处理后，获得了467条记录，并对每个物种评估了1190个候选模型。结果显示了环境空间中出现情况的分布，突出了在校准区域之外进行外推的高风险。面向运动的奇偶性分析揭示了不同气候条件下的独特分布模式，并确定了环境相似的区域。巴西三趾树懒表现出广泛的潜在分布，而九带犰狳和北美负鼠的分布范围则更受限制。巴西棉尾兔覆盖了新热带地区的大部分地区。我们的研究为这些物种的生态位和地理范围提供了有价值的见解，有助于理解皮肤利什曼病的传播动态。
