Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Instituto de Biociências, Laboratório de Parasitologia Humana, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil.
Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2020 Feb 27;115:e190298. doi: 10.1590/0074-02760190298. eCollection 2020.
Leishmaniases are considered a major public health problem in South America, specifically in Brazil. Moreover, the transmission and epidemiology of leishmaniasis are possibly associated with climatic and environmental variations.
This study aimed to assess the association between the extreme climatic phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the maximum and minimum variations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture and the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, from 2002 to 2015.
The Niño 3.4 index was used for the ENSO variation. The other climatic data were obtained from the climatic tool TerraClimate. Records regarding VL were obtained from the Notification of Injury Information System.
From 2002 to 2015, there were 3,137 cases of VL recorded in MS. The annual incidence of the disease was negatively associated with the ENSO index and soil moisture in MS. The VL incidence increased during the negative phase of ENSO and decreased during the positive phase.
The results demonstrated that the interannual cycles of incidence of human VL are significantly associated with the occurrence of the ENSO phenomenon and its phases, El Niño and La Niña.
利什曼病被认为是南美的一个主要公共卫生问题，特别是在巴西。此外，利什曼病的传播和流行病学可能与气候和环境变化有关。
本研究旨在评估极端气候现象厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、温度、降水和土壤湿度的最大和最小变化以及巴西南马托格罗索州（MS）内脏利什曼病（VL）发病率之间的关联，时间范围为 2002 年至 2015 年。
使用尼诺 3.4 指数来表示 ENSO 的变化。其他气候数据来自气候工具 TerraClimate 获得。VL 记录来自伤害信息系统通知。
2002 年至 2015 年，MS 共记录了 3137 例 VL。该疾病的年发病率与 ENSO 指数和 MS 土壤湿度呈负相关。VL 的发病率在 ENSO 的负相期间增加，在正相期间减少。
结果表明，人类 VL 发病率的年际周期与 ENSO 现象及其厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相的发生显著相关。
