Moens G F, van Oortmarssen G J, Honggokoesoemo S, van de Voorde H
School of Public Health, Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium.
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1987 Oct;76(4):450-5. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1987.tb05630.x.
The effect of birth cohort upon the recent increase in Belgian suicide trends was analyzed by two techniques: a graphic display and an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modelling procedure. Both suggest an analogous pattern: suicide mortality steadily increased within successive male cohorts born after 1920 and within female cohorts born even before 1900. Between 1970 and 1980, period related factors seem to have operated independently. Every technique of cohort analysis however has important interpretational limitations because of the variable interplay between age period and cohort factors. As a consequence, explanations remain very tentative, Notwithstanding its rather poor etiological power in suicide epidemiology, cohort analysis is very useful in the more accurate description and prediction of suicide trends.
一种是图表展示，另一种是年龄-时期-队列（APC）建模程序。两者都显示出类似的模式：1920年后出生的连续男性队列以及甚至在1900年前出生的女性队列中的自杀死亡率稳步上升。在1970年至1980年期间，与时期相关的因素似乎独立起作用。然而，由于年龄、时期和队列因素之间的相互作用多变，每种队列分析技术都有重要的解释局限性。因此，解释仍然非常初步。尽管队列分析在自杀流行病学中的病因学作用相当有限，但它在更准确地描述和预测自杀趋势方面非常有用。
