Murphy G E, Wetzel R D
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1980 May;37(5):519-23. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.1980.01780180033003.
Following the demonstration by Solomon and Hellon that in the past 30 years, successive birth cohorts in Alberta, Canada, carry successively higher suicide risks as they age, we examined data by birth cohort in the Vital Statistics of the United States by race and sex over a similar period. We found the same phenomenon, in reduced magnitude, in birth cohorts of much greater size. Not only does each successive birth cohort start with a higher suicide rate, at each successive five-year interval it has a higher rate than the preceding cohort had at that age. The regularity of this phenomenon over the past 25 years in the United States implies continually rising suicide rates in these birth cohorts. It suggests that whatever the cause of this effect, it is early and lasting. Birth cohort analysis appears to offer an important new tool for studying suicide. Its implications have only begun to be examined.
所罗门和赫伦证明，在过去30年里，加拿大艾伯塔省相继出生的各代人随着年龄增长自杀风险不断升高。在此之后，我们按出生队列对同期美国人口统计数据按种族和性别进行了研究。我们在规模大得多的出生队列中也发现了同样的现象，只是程度有所减轻。不仅每一代出生队列开始时的自杀率更高，而且在每一个相继的五年间隔期，其自杀率都高于前一代在该年龄时的自杀率。过去25年里美国这一现象的规律性意味着这些出生队列中的自杀率在持续上升。这表明，无论造成这种影响的原因是什么，它出现得早且持续存在。出生队列分析似乎为研究自杀提供了一个重要的新工具。其影响才刚刚开始得到研究。
