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可再生能源、碳排放与经济增长之间的动态联系:基于非线性 ARDL 方法的证据来自伊朗。

Dynamic linkages between renewable energy, carbon emissions and economic growth through nonlinear ARDL approach: Evidence from Iran.

机构信息

Department of Economic, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

School of Economics and Management, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 19;16(7):e0253464. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253464. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Iran between 1975-2017, and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the asymmetric method was used in this study. The results reveal that in the long run increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions causes an increase in real GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the decrease in renewable energy has the same effect, but GDP per capita reacts more strongly to the rise in renewable energy than the decline. Besides, in the long run, a reduction of CO2 emissions has an insignificant impact on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results from asymmetric tests suggest that reducing CO2 emissions and renewable energy consumption do not have an essential role in decreasing growth in the short run. In contrast, an increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions do contribute to boosting the growth. These results may be attributable to the less renewable energy in the energy portfolio of Iran. Additionally, the coefficients on capital and labor are statistically significant, and we discuss the economic implications of the results and propose specific policy recommendations.

摘要

本研究考察了 1975-2017 年期间伊朗经济增长、可再生能源消费和碳排放之间的关系,使用了协整检验的边界检验方法和非对称方法。结果表明,在长期内,可再生能源消费和二氧化碳排放的增加会导致人均实际 GDP 的增加。同时,可再生能源的减少也会产生同样的效果,但人均 GDP 对可再生能源的增加反应比减少更为强烈。此外,在长期内,二氧化碳排放的减少对人均 GDP 没有显著影响。此外,非对称检验的结果表明,减少二氧化碳排放和可再生能源消费在短期内对经济增长没有重要作用。相反,可再生能源消费和二氧化碳排放的增加有助于促进经济增长。这些结果可能归因于伊朗能源组合中可再生能源的比例较低。此外,资本和劳动力的系数在统计上是显著的,我们讨论了结果的经济意义,并提出了具体的政策建议。

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