Jafri Muhammad Afaq Haider, Liu Huizheng, Usman Ahmed, Khan Qasim Raza
College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China.
School of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jul;28(28):37435-37447. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13131-1. Epub 2021 Mar 13.
To understand the nexus between economic growth and energy sources, in this study, we have selected Pakistan and collected data over the period 1980-2016. The neoclassical production function of Pakistan is augmented with conventional and renewable energy, capital, and labor. Conversely, the conventional and renewable models are being constructed by using GDP as an independent variable. This paper applied linear and nonlinear ARDL models to see whether the influence of conventional and renewable energy consumption on GDP per capita of Pakistan is symmetric or asymmetric and vice versa. Furthermore, the asymmetric causal effects between the energy variables and economic growth are also discussed. From the findings of the study, we deduce the long-run asymmetric effects of renewable energy on the economic growth of Pakistan. Similarly, the asymmetric effects of GDP, in the long run, are confirmed in both energy models. The symmetric and asymmetric causality results have recommended growth and conservation hypothesis. The findings propose that renewable energy is a significant factor in boosting the economic growth of Pakistan and a decline in the use of renewable energy could actually stem the economic growth of Pakistan.
为了理解经济增长与能源之间的联系，在本研究中，我们选取了巴基斯坦，并收集了1980 - 2016年期间的数据。巴基斯坦的新古典生产函数通过传统能源、可再生能源、资本和劳动力进行了扩展。相反，传统模型和可再生模型则以国内生产总值（GDP）作为自变量来构建。本文应用线性和非线性自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型，以考察传统能源和可再生能源消费对巴基斯坦人均国内生产总值的影响是对称的还是不对称的，反之亦然。此外，还讨论了能源变量与经济增长之间的不对称因果效应。从研究结果中，我们推断出可再生能源对巴基斯坦经济增长的长期不对称效应。同样，在两个能源模型中，从长期来看，国内生产总值的不对称效应也得到了证实。对称和不对称因果关系结果支持了增长与节约假说。研究结果表明，可再生能源是推动巴基斯坦经济增长的一个重要因素，而可再生能源使用的减少实际上可能阻碍巴基斯坦的经济增长。
