Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.
Public Administration and Humanities College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jul 1;18(13):7039. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18137039.
Safety of the hazardous chemicals road transportation system (HCRTS) is an important, complex, social, and environmental sensitive problem. The complexity, dynamics, and multi-link features of HCRTS have made it necessary to think beyond traditional risk analysis methods. Based on the relevant literature, Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) is a relatively new systemic method for modeling and analyzing complex socio-technical systems. In this study, a methodology that integrates FRAM, fuzzy sets, and risk matrix is presented to quantitatively assess the risks factors representing failure function links in HCRTS. As the strength of function links can be illustrated by the RI (risk index) of risk factors identified in failure function links, 32 risk factors representing 12 failure function links were first identified by accident causes analysis and the framework of FRAM. Fuzzy sets were then utilized to calculate the weight of the likelihood and consequence of the risk factors. Finally, according to the assessment results of the identified risk factors by a two-dimensional risk matrix, the weaker function links in the whole HCRTS chain were identified. HCs road companies, regulatory authorities, relevant practitioners, and other stakeholders should pay more attention to these links.
危险化学品道路运输系统（HCRTS）的安全性是一个重要的、复杂的、社会敏感的和环境敏感的问题。HCRTS 的复杂性、动态性和多环节特点使得有必要超越传统的风险分析方法进行思考。基于相关文献，功能共振分析方法（FRAM）是一种用于建模和分析复杂社会技术系统的相对较新的系统方法。在本研究中，提出了一种将 FRAM、模糊集和风险矩阵集成的方法，用于定量评估代表 HCRTS 失效功能环节的风险因素。由于功能环节的强度可以通过在失效功能环节中识别出的风险因素的 RI（风险指数）来表示，因此首先通过事故原因分析和 FRAM 框架确定了代表 12 个失效功能环节的 32 个风险因素。然后利用模糊集计算风险因素的可能性和后果的权重。最后，根据二维风险矩阵对识别出的风险因素的评估结果，确定整个 HCRTS 链中较弱的功能环节。危险化学品道路运输公司、监管机构、相关从业者和其他利益相关者应更加关注这些环节。
