Prediction of Subtle Cognitive Decline in Normal Aging: Added Value of Quantitative MRI and PET Imaging.

Quantitative imaging processing tools have been proposed to improve clinic-radiological correlations but their added value at the initial stages of cognitive decline is still a matter of debate. We performed a longitudinal study in 90 community-dwelling elders with three neuropsychological assessments during a 4.5 year follow-up period, and visual assessment of medial temporal atrophy (MTA), white matter hyperintensities, cortical microbleeds (CMB) as well as amyloid positivity, and presence of abnormal FDG-PET patterns. Quantitative imaging data concerned ROI analysis of MRI volume, amyloid burden, and FDG-PET metabolism in several AD-signature areas. Multiple regression models, likelihood-ratio tests, and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to compare quantitative imaging markers to visual inspection. The presence of more or equal to four CMB at inclusion and slight atrophy of the right MTL at follow-up were the only parameters to be independently related to the worst cognitive score explaining 6% of its variance. This percentage increased to 24.5% when the ROI-defined volume loss in the posterior cingulate cortex, baseline hippocampus volume, and MTL metabolism were also considered. When binary classification of cognition was made, the area under the ROC curve increased from 0.69 for the qualitative to 0.79 for the mixed imaging model. Our data reveal that the inclusion of quantitative imaging data significantly increases the prediction of cognitive changes in elderly controls compared to the single consideration of visual inspection.