School of Business, Jilin University, No. 2699 Qianjin Street, Changchun 130012, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Aug 3;18(15):8219. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18158219.
Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and agriculture has become the second biggest source of carbon emissions in China. In this context, it is necessary for China to study the nexus of agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions. Taking Jilin province as an example, this paper applied the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and a decoupling analysis to examine the relationship between crop production and agricultural carbon emissions during 2000-2018, and it further provided a decomposition analysis of the changes in agricultural carbon emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The results were as follows: (1) Based on the results of CO EKC estimation, an N-shaped EKC was found; in particular, the upward trend in agricultural carbon emissions has not changed recently. (2) According to the results of the decoupling analysis, expansive coupling occurred for 9 years, which was followed by weak decoupling for 5 years, and strong decoupling and strong coupling occurred for 2 years each. There was no stable evolutionary path from coupling to decoupling, and this has remained true recently. (3) We used the LMDI method to decompose the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions into four factors: the agricultural carbon emission intensity effect, structure effect, economic effect, and labor force effect. From a policymaking perspective, we integrated the results of both the EKC and the decoupling analysis and conducted a detailed decomposition analysis, focusing on several key time points. Agricultural economic growth was found to have played a significant role on many occasions in the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while agricultural carbon emission intensity was important to the decline in agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically, the four factors' driving direction in the context of agricultural carbon emissions was not stable. We also found that the change in agricultural carbon emissions was affected more by economic policy than by environmental policy. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions for low-carbon agricultural development in Jilin province.
现代农业对温室气体排放有重大贡献，农业已成为中国第二大碳排放源。在此背景下，中国有必要研究农业经济增长与碳排放的关系。本文以吉林省为例，应用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说和脱钩分析，检验了 2000-2018 年期间作物生产与农业碳排放之间的关系，并进一步利用对数平均迪氏分解指数（LMDI）法对农业碳排放变化进行了分解分析。结果表明：（1）基于 CO EKC 估计结果，发现存在 N 型 EKC，特别是农业碳排放上升趋势近期并未改变；（2）根据脱钩分析结果，有 9 年为扩张性脱钩，随后为 5 年弱脱钩，2 年强脱钩和强脱钩，没有从脱钩到耦合的稳定演进路径，而且这种情况在近期仍未改变；（3）利用 LMDI 方法将农业碳排放的驱动因素分解为农业碳排放强度效应、结构效应、经济效应和劳动力效应四个因素。从政策制定的角度来看，我们综合了 EKC 和脱钩分析的结果，并进行了详细的分解分析，重点关注了几个关键时间点。农业经济增长在农业碳排放增加的许多情况下都发挥了重要作用，而农业碳排放强度对农业碳排放的减少也很重要。具体来说，四个因素在农业碳排放背景下的驱动方向并不稳定。我们还发现，农业碳排放的变化更多地受到经济政策的影响，而不是环境政策的影响。最后，我们为吉林省低碳农业发展提出了政策建议。
