Zhang Qiangqiang, Gao Xixi, Hu Yujie, He Zhongwei, Li Xiaojing
Beijing Research Center for Rural Revitalization/College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing, 102206, China.
Faculty of Applied Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 102488, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 27;15(1):18478. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-02419-8.
Articulating the spatial and temporal features of apple carbon emissions in China across different years and areas is critical for developing an appropriate and acceptable apple carbon reduction program. This paper builds a provincial-level database (1991-2020) of apple carbon emissions in China, covering six primary sources: chemical fertilizers, pesticides, plastic films, machinery, irrigation, and tillage. By using the LMDI approach, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and barycenter analysis, we find that (1) China's apple carbon emissions exhibited an M-shaped fluctuation pattern, with a 1.38-fold increase during the study period, while apple carbon intensity increased 67.01%. (2) Chemical fertilizers were the largest contributor (55%) to apple carbon emissions, followed by plastic films, irrigation, pesticides, machinery, and tillage. (3) Apple carbon emissions showed significant regional heterogeneity, with a spatial pattern of the Bohai Bay production area as the largest in terms of carbon emissions and carbon intensity. While chemical fertilizers were the primary contributor in the other four production areas, plastic films had a disproportionately high impact in Bohai Bay production area. Moreover, 13 provinces increased their carbon emissions, while 9 provinces reduced. Chemical fertilizers, plastic films and irrigation were dominant contributing factors in 14, 5, and 3 provinces, respectively. (4) There is no significant spatial association between surrounding provinces in apple carbon emissions. Spatial correlations reveal a "high-low" or "low-high" agglomeration of negative values during certain individual years. In 2020, the barycenter of apple carbon emissions migrated southwestward 451.69 km, reaching Shaanxi Province. This article recommends promoting organic fertilizers, water-fertilizer integration, mulch recycling, straw mulching, and drip irrigation to minimize apple carbon emissions. Additionally, region-specific emission reduction strategies should be developed, with particular emphasis on Shaanxi and Gansu, considering their distinct spatial and temporal characteristics.
明确中国不同年份和地区苹果碳排放的时空特征，对于制定合适且可接受的苹果碳减排计划至关重要。本文构建了中国省级层面的苹果碳排放数据库（1991 - 2020年），涵盖六个主要来源：化肥、农药、塑料薄膜、机械、灌溉和耕作。通过运用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法、空间自相关分析和重心分析，我们发现：（1）中国苹果碳排放呈现M型波动模式，在研究期间增长了1.38倍，而苹果碳强度增长了67.01%。（2）化肥是苹果碳排放的最大贡献者（55%），其次是塑料薄膜、灌溉、农药、机械和耕作。（3）苹果碳排放呈现出显著的区域异质性，碳排放和碳强度方面以渤海湾产区空间格局最大。虽然化肥是其他四个产区的主要贡献因素，但塑料薄膜在渤海湾产区的影响 disproportionately 过高。此外，13个省份碳排放增加，9个省份减少。化肥、塑料薄膜和灌溉分别是14个、5个和3个省份的主要贡献因素。（4）周边省份在苹果碳排放方面不存在显著的空间关联。空间相关性揭示在某些个别年份存在“高 - 低”或“低 - 高”的负值集聚。2020年，苹果碳排放重心向西南迁移451.69公里，到达陕西省。本文建议推广有机肥、水肥一体化、地膜回收、秸秆覆盖和滴灌，以尽量减少苹果碳排放。此外，应制定针对特定区域的减排策略，尤其要考虑陕西和甘肃独特的时空特征，重点关注这两个省份。
