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On the mean incubation time of AIDS infections.

作者信息

Weyer J

机构信息

Mathematics Institute, University of Cologne.

出版信息

Infection. 1987 Nov-Dec;15(6):413-6. doi: 10.1007/BF01647217.

DOI:10.1007/BF01647217
PMID:3436671
Abstract

Using a nonlinear curve fitting method we calculate the incidence of AIDS cases through a study of reported data on cumulative AIDS cases. The method allows one to estimate the expected value of the incubation time, which happens to be about 11 years, if the intervals of observation are sufficiently large (greater than or equal to 45 years). For smaller intervals of observation the mean observed incubation time will be much shorter in consequence of the overrepresentation of "quick runners". The model predicts a mean observed incubation time of 5.3 years for an infected cohort in the first seven years after infection.

摘要

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本文引用的文献

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Follow-up at 41/2 years on homosexual men with generalized lymphadenopathy.
N Engl J Med. 1985 Dec 12;313(24):1542-3. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198512123132412.
2
[Spontaneous course of LAV/HTLV-III infection. Follow-up of persons from AIDS-risk groups].
Dtsch Med Wochenschr. 1986 Aug 1;111(31-32):1175-80. doi: 10.1055/s-2008-1068603.
3
Three-year incidence of AIDS in five cohorts of HTLV-III-infected risk group members.五组感染人嗜T淋巴细胞病毒III型（HTLV-III）的高危人群成员的艾滋病三年发病率。
Science. 1986 Feb 28;231(4741):992-5. doi: 10.1126/science.3003917.
4
The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in a cohort of homosexual men. A six-year follow-up study.
Ann Intern Med. 1985 Aug;103(2):210-4. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-2-210.