Harrison M J
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545.
J Math Biol. 1989;27(5):523-35. doi: 10.1007/BF00288432.
An observed cubic dependence on time of the cumulative growth in numbers of AIDS patients is shown to be the leading term of a power series in general. The cubic leading term follows from a nearly model-independent description of the rate of HIV infection, provided only that there is a distribution of incubation times to the appearance of clinically diagnosed AIDS symptoms with a finite initial derivative, that none of those infected exhibit immediate indications of illness, and that the epidemic begins with a finite initial rate of infection.
观察到艾滋病患者数量的累积增长对时间呈现三次方依赖性，总体而言，这是一个幂级数的首项。只要对艾滋病临床诊断症状出现的潜伏期存在具有有限初始导数的分布，所有感染者均无疾病即刻迹象，且疫情始于有限的初始感染率，那么这种三次方首项就源自对HIV感染率几乎与模型无关的描述。
