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预测声音干扰对种群的影响,以濒危灰鲸种群为例。

Predicting the population consequences of acoustic disturbance, with application to an endangered gray whale population.

机构信息

Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, 95064, USA.

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, 95064, USA.

出版信息

Ecol Appl. 2021 Dec;31(8):e02440. doi: 10.1002/eap.2440. Epub 2021 Sep 19.

Abstract

Acoustic disturbance is a growing conservation concern for wildlife populations because it can elicit physiological and behavioral responses that can have cascading impacts on population dynamics. State-dependent behavioral and life history models implemented via Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) provide a natural framework for quantifying biologically meaningful population changes resulting from disturbance by linking environment, physiology, and metrics of fitness. We developed an SDP model using the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) as a case study because they experience acoustic disturbance on their summer foraging grounds. We modeled the behavior and physiological dynamics of pregnant females as they arrived on the feeding grounds and predicted the probability of female and offspring survival, with and without acoustic disturbance and in the presence/absence of high prey availability. Upon arrival in mid-May, pregnant females initially exhibited relatively random behavior before they transitioned to intensive feeding that resulted in continual fat mass gain until departure. This shift in behavior co-occurred with a change in spatial distribution; early in the season, whales were more equally distributed among foraging areas with moderate to high energy availability, whereas by mid-July whales transitioned to predominate use of the location that had the highest energy availability. Exclusion from energy-rich offshore areas led to reproductive failure and in extreme cases, mortality of adult females that had lasting impacts on population dynamics. Simulated disturbances in nearshore foraging areas had little to no impact on female survival or reproductive success at the population level. At the individual level, the impact of disturbance was unequally distributed across females of different lengths, both with respect to the number of times an individual was disturbed and the impact of disturbance on vital rates. Our results highlight the susceptibility of large capital breeders to reductions in prey availability, and indicate that who, where, and when individuals are disturbed are likely to be important considerations when assessing the impacts of acoustic activities. This model provides a framework to inform planned acoustic disturbances and assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for large capital breeders.

摘要

声扰是野生动物种群日益关注的保护问题,因为它会引发生理和行为反应,从而对种群动态产生级联影响。通过随机动态规划 (SDP) 实施的依赖状态的行为和生活史模型,为量化由于环境、生理学和适应性指标的干扰而导致的生物有意义的种群变化提供了一个自然框架。我们使用濒危的西部灰鲸 (Eschrichtius robustus) 作为案例研究开发了一个 SDP 模型,因为它们在夏季觅食地会受到声扰。我们模拟了怀孕雌性在到达觅食地时的行为和生理动态,并预测了在有/没有声扰以及在高猎物丰度存在/不存在的情况下雌性和后代的生存概率。五月中旬到达时,怀孕雌性最初表现出相对随机的行为,然后过渡到密集的进食,导致脂肪量持续增加,直到离开。这种行为的转变与空间分布的变化同时发生;在季节初期,鲸鱼在中等到高能量供应的觅食区域中分布相对均匀,而到 7 月中旬,鲸鱼则过渡到主要使用能量供应最高的区域。被排除在富营养的近海区域之外导致繁殖失败,在极端情况下,成年雌性死亡,这对种群动态产生了持久的影响。近岸觅食区的模拟干扰对雌性的生存或种群水平的繁殖成功率几乎没有影响。在个体水平上,干扰的影响在不同长度的雌性个体之间分布不均,无论是个体受到干扰的次数还是干扰对关键率的影响都是如此。我们的结果强调了大型资本繁殖者对猎物减少的易感性,并表明在评估声活动的影响时,谁、在哪里以及何时干扰个体可能是重要的考虑因素。该模型为计划中的声干扰提供了一个框架,并评估了大型资本繁殖者的缓解策略的有效性。

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