Department of Social Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Durham, NC, United States of America.
Center for Health Equity Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Durham, NC, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Aug 12;16(8):e0256185. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256185. eCollection 2021.
Prisons are the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Media reports have focused on whether transfers of incarcerated people between prisons have been the source of outbreaks. Our objective was to examine the relationship between intersystem prison transfers and COVID-19 incidence in a state prison system. We assessed the change in the means of the time-series of prison transfers and their cross-correlation with the time-series of COVID-19 tests and cases. Regression with automatic detection of multiple change-points was used to identify important changes to transfers. There were over 20,000 transfers between the state's prisons from January through October 2020. Most who were transferred (82%), experienced a single transfer. Transfers between prisons are positively related to future COVID-19 case rates but transfers are not reactive to current case rates. To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in carceral settings, it is crucial for transfers of individuals between facilities to be limited.
监狱是 COVID-19 大流行的中心。媒体报道的焦点集中在囚犯在监狱之间的转移是否是疫情爆发的源头。我们的目的是研究州监狱系统中监狱之间的系统内转移与 COVID-19 发病率之间的关系。我们评估了监狱转移时间序列的均值变化及其与 COVID-19 检测和病例时间序列的交叉相关性。使用具有自动检测多个变化点的回归来识别转移的重要变化。2020 年 1 月至 10 月期间，该州监狱之间有超过 20000 次转移。大多数被转移的人（82%）经历了单次转移。监狱之间的转移与未来的 COVID-19 病例率呈正相关，但转移并不受当前病例率的影响。为了减轻监狱环境中 COVID-19 的传播，限制个人在设施之间的转移至关重要。
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