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从中部偏北地区树木年轮记录推断的水分变化及其与遥远海洋的联系。

Moisture variation inferred from tree rings in north central China and its links with the remote oceans.

机构信息

MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China.

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, Sichuan, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2021 Aug 12;11(1):16463. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93841-1.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-93841-1
PMID:34385488
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8361152/
Abstract

In this study we presented a composite standard chronology, spanning 1635-2018 to reconstruct May-July moisture variation in north central China. Our reconstruction revealed four severe dry epochs and five pronounced wet epochs. Additionally, spatial correlation analysis of our reconstruction with the actual self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index showed that our reconstruction was representative of large-scale May-July moisture changes. Both the severe dry and pronounced wet epochs showed one-to-one correspondence with other reconstructions nearby during their common periods, which demonstrated the reliability of our reconstruction backwards in time. Spectral analysis showed that significant spectral peaks were found at 2.1-3.8 years, which fell within the overall bandwidth of the El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). The spatial correlation patterns between our reconstruction and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific further confirmed the link between regional moisture and ENSO, with warm-phase ENSO resulting in low moisture and vice-versa. However, this link was time-dependent during the past four centuries, and was modulated by different phases of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean. Additionally, significant peaks at 24.9-46.5 years and spatial correlation patterns indicated that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation may be the possible forcing factors of regional moisture at lower frequencies.

摘要

在本研究中，我们提出了一个综合标准年表，涵盖了 1635 年至 2018 年，以重建中国中北部 5-7 月的水分变化。我们的重建结果揭示了四个严重干旱时期和五个显著湿润时期。此外，我们的重建与实际自校准帕尔默干旱严重指数的空间相关分析表明，我们的重建代表了大规模的 5-7 月水分变化。严重干旱和显著湿润时期在其共同时期与附近的其他重建结果一一对应，这证明了我们的重建结果在时间上的可靠性。频谱分析表明，在 2.1-3.8 年之间发现了显著的谱峰，这处于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的总带宽内。我们的重建与赤道东太平洋海表温度（SST）之间的空间相关模式进一步证实了区域水分与 ENSO 之间的联系，暖相位 ENSO 导致低水分，反之亦然。然而，在过去四个世纪中，这种联系是时变的，并受到热带印度洋 SST 不同相位的调制。此外，24.9-46.5 年的显著峰值和空间相关模式表明，太平洋年代际振荡和北大西洋涛动可能是区域水分在较低频率下的可能强迫因素。

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本文引用的文献

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