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预测老年结直肠癌患者手术后 2 年和 5 年死亡率的风险评分。

Risk scores to predict mortality 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer in elderly patients.

机构信息

Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao - Usansolo Hospital (Research Unit), Galdakao, Basque Country, Spain.

Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Basque Country, Spain.

出版信息

World J Surg Oncol. 2021 Aug 26;19(1):252. doi: 10.1186/s12957-021-02356-6.


DOI:10.1186/s12957-021-02356-6
PMID:34446044
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8394051/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery and to develop a risk score. METHODS: This was an observational prospective cohort study. Individuals over 80 years diagnosed with colorectal cancer and treated surgically were recruited in 18 hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service, between June 2010 and December 2012, and were followed up 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after surgery. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected. The primary outcomes were mortality at 2 and between 2 and 5 years after the index admission. RESULTS: The predictors of mortality 2 years after surgery were haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl and colon locations (HR 1.02; CI 0.51-2.02), ASA class of IV (HR 3.55; CI 1.91-6.58), residual tumour classification of R2 (HR 7.82; CI 3.11-19.62), TNM stage of III (HR 2.14; CI 1.23-3.72) or IV (HR 3.21; CI 1.47-7), LODDS of more than - 0.53 (HR 3.08; CI 1.62-5.86)) and complications during admission (HR 1.73; CI 1.07-2.80). Between 2 and 5 years of follow-up, the predictors were no tests performed within the first year of follow-up (HR 2.58; CI 1.21-5.46), any complication due to the treatment within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 2.47; CI 1.27-4.81), being between 85 and 89 and not having radiotherapy within the second year of follow-up (HR 1.60; CI 1.01-2.55), no colostomy closure within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 4.93; CI 1.48-16.41), medical complications (HR 1.61; CI 1.06-2.44), tumour recurrence within the 2 years of follow-up period (HR 3.19; CI 1.96-5.18), and readmissions at 1 or 2 years of follow-up after surgery (HR 1.44; CI 0.86-2.41). CONCLUSION: We have identified variables that, in our sample, predict mortality 2 and between 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer older patients. We have also created risks scores, which could support the decision-making process. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT02488161 .

摘要

背景:本研究旨在确定接受结直肠癌手术的老年患者的死亡预测因素,并制定风险评分。

方法:这是一项观察性前瞻性队列研究。2010 年 6 月至 2012 年 12 月期间,在西班牙国家卫生服务系统的 18 家医院招募了 80 岁以上被诊断患有结直肠癌并接受手术治疗的患者,并在手术后 1、2、3 和 5 年进行随访。收集了社会人口统计学和临床数据。主要结局是手术后 2 年和 2 至 5 年的死亡率。

结果:手术后 2 年死亡的预测因素是血红蛋白≤10g/dl 和结肠位置(HR 1.02;95%CI 0.51-2.02)、ASA 分级为 IV 级(HR 3.55;95%CI 1.91-6.58)、残留肿瘤分类为 R2(HR 7.82;95%CI 3.11-19.62)、TNM 分期为 III 期(HR 2.14;95%CI 1.23-3.72)或 IV 期(HR 3.21;95%CI 1.47-7)、LODDS 大于-0.53(HR 3.08;95%CI 1.62-5.86))和住院期间的并发症(HR 1.73;95%CI 1.07-2.80)。在 2 至 5 年的随访期间,预测因素为在随访的第一年未进行任何检查(HR 2.58;95%CI 1.21-5.46)、在随访的 2 年内因治疗而发生任何并发症(HR 2.47;95%CI 1.27-4.81)、在 85 至 89 岁之间且在随访的第二年未进行放疗(HR 1.60;95%CI 1.01-2.55)、在随访的 2 年内未进行结肠造口术闭合(HR 4.93;95%CI 1.48-16.41)、医疗并发症(HR 1.61;95%CI 1.06-2.44)、在随访的 2 年内肿瘤复发(HR 3.19;95%CI 1.96-5.18)以及手术后 1 或 2 年的再入院(HR 1.44;95%CI 0.86-2.41)。

结论:我们已经确定了变量,这些变量在我们的样本中预测了年龄较大的结直肠癌患者手术后 2 年和 2 至 5 年的死亡。我们还创建了风险评分,可以支持决策过程。

试验注册:ClinicalTrials.gov,NCT02488161。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e2b5/8394051/f30bc10a260d/12957_2021_2356_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e2b5/8394051/c08f14fa0c7c/12957_2021_2356_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e2b5/8394051/f30bc10a260d/12957_2021_2356_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e2b5/8394051/c08f14fa0c7c/12957_2021_2356_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e2b5/8394051/f30bc10a260d/12957_2021_2356_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Actual survival after resection of primary colorectal cancer: results from a prospective multicenter study.

World J Surg Oncol. 2021-4-5

[2]
Liver resection for colorectal liver-limited metastases in elderly patients: a propensity score matching analysis.

World J Surg Oncol. 2020-10-24

[3]
Colorectal cancer surgery in selected nonagenarians is relatively safe and it is associated with a good long-term survival: an observational study.

World J Surg Oncol. 2020-6-3

[4]
A competing-risk nomogram to predict cause-specific death in elderly patients with colorectal cancer after surgery (especially for colon cancer).

World J Surg Oncol. 2020-2-4

[5]
Recommendations for follow-up of colorectal cancer survivors.

Clin Transl Oncol. 2019-2-14

[6]
A new diagnostic index for sarcopenia and its association with short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer.

Colorectal Dis. 2019-2-4

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CA Cancer J Clin. 2018-9-12

[8]
Mortality and Survival after Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer in Patients Aged over 80 Years.

Gastrointest Tumors. 2017-9

[9]
Survival rates and predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients in a Malaysian tertiary hospital.

BMC Cancer. 2017-5-18

[10]
The Disproportionate Effect of Perioperative Complications on Mortality within 1 Year After Colorectal Cancer Resection in Octogenarians.

Ann Surg Oncol. 2016-12

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