Xia Heng-Bo, Chen Chen, Jia Zhi-Xing, Li Liang, Xu A-Man
Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, Anhui Province, China.
Department of General Surgery, Anhui Public Health Clinical Center, Hefei 230032, Anhui Province, China.
World J Gastrointest Surg. 2023 Nov 27;15(11):2430-2444. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v15.i11.2430.
BACKGROUND: Colon cancer (CC) is one of the most common cancers of the digestive tract, the third most common cancer worldwide, and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths. Previous studies have demonstrated a higher risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in young patients with CC. It might be reasonable to treat patients with early-onset locally advanced CC with extended lymph node dissection. However, few studies have focused on early-onset CC (ECC) patients with LNM. At present, the methods of predicting and evaluating the prognosis of ECC patients with LNM are controversial. AIM: To compare the prognostic values of four lymph node staging indices and establish the best nomogram for patients with ECC. METHODS: From the data of patients with CC obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, data of young patients with ECC (≤ 50 years old) was screened. Patients with unknown data were excluded from the study, while the remaining patients were included. The patients were randomly divided into a training group (train) and a testing group (test) in the ratio of 7:3, while building the model. The model was constructed by the training group and verified by the testing group. Using multiple Cox regression models to compare the prediction efficiency of LNM indicators, nomograms were built based on the best model selected for overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). In the two groups, the performance of the nomogram was evaluated by constructing a calibration plot, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis. Finally, the patients were grouped based on the risk score predicted by the prognosis model, and the survival curve was constructed after comparing the survival status of the high and low-risk groups. RESULTS: Records of 26922 ECC patients were screened from the SEER database. N classification, positive lymph nodes (PLN), lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of PLN (LODDS) were considered to be independent predictors of OS and CSS. In addition, independent risk factors for OS included gender, race, marital status, primary site, histology, grade, T, and M classification, while the independent prognostic factors for CSS included race, marital status, primary site, grade, T, and M classification. The prediction model including LODDS is composed of minimal Akaike information criterion, maximal concordance indexes, and AUCs. Factors including gender, race, marital status, primary site, histology, grade, T, M classification, and LODDS were integrated into the OS nomogram, while race, marital status, primary site, grade, T, M classification, and LODDS were included into the CSS nomogram. The nomogram representing both cohorts had been successfully verified in terms of prediction accuracy and clinical practicability. CONCLUSION: LODDS is superior to N-stage, PLN, and LNR of ECC. The nomogram containing LODDS might be helpful in tumor evaluation and clinical decision-making, since it provides an appropriate prediction of ECC.
背景:结肠癌(CC)是消化道最常见的癌症之一,是全球第三大常见癌症,也是癌症相关死亡的第二大常见原因。先前的研究表明,CC 年轻患者发生淋巴结转移(LNM)的风险更高。对早期发病的局部晚期 CC 患者进行扩大淋巴结清扫术可能是合理的。然而,很少有研究关注伴有 LNM 的早期发病 CC(ECC)患者。目前,预测和评估伴有 LNM 的 ECC 患者预后的方法存在争议。 目的:比较四种淋巴结分期指标的预后价值,并为 ECC 患者建立最佳列线图。 方法:从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中获取的 CC 患者数据中,筛选出 ECC(≤50 岁)年轻患者的数据。数据未知的患者被排除在研究之外,其余患者被纳入。在构建模型时,患者以 7:3 的比例随机分为训练组(train)和测试组(test)。该模型由训练组构建并由测试组验证。使用多个 Cox 回归模型比较 LNM 指标的预测效率,基于为总生存期(OS)和特定病因生存期(CSS)选择的最佳模型构建列线图。在两组中,通过构建校准图、时间依赖性曲线下面积(AUC)和决策曲线分析来评估列线图的性能。最后,根据预后模型预测的风险评分对患者进行分组,并在比较高风险组和低风险组的生存状态后构建生存曲线。 结果:从 SEER 数据库中筛选出 26922 例 ECC 患者的记录。N 分期、阳性淋巴结(PLN)、淋巴结比率(LNR)和 PLN 的对数优势比(LODDS)被认为是 OS 和 CSS 的独立预测因子。此外,OS 的独立危险因素包括性别、种族、婚姻状况、原发部位、组织学、分级、T 和 M 分期,而 CSS 的独立预后因素包括种族、婚姻状况、原发部位、分级、T 和 M 分期。包含 LODDS 的预测模型由最小赤池信息准则、最大一致性指数和 AUC 组成。将性别、种族、婚姻状况、原发部位、组织学、分级、T、M 分期和 LODDS 等因素纳入 OS 列线图,而种族、婚姻状况、原发部位、分级、T、M 分期和 LODDS 纳入 CSS 列线图。代表两个队列的列线图在预测准确性和临床实用性方面均已成功验证。 结论:LODDS 优于 ECC 的 N 分期、PLN 和 LNR。包含 LODDS 的列线图可能有助于肿瘤评估和临床决策,因为它为 ECC 提供了适当的预测。
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