Ozkaynak H, Thurston G D
Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.
Risk Anal. 1987 Dec;7(4):449-61. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00482.x.
We analyzed the 1980 U.S. vital statistics and available ambient air pollution data bases for sulfates and fine, inhalable, and total suspended particles. Using multiple regression analyses, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the association between various particle measures and total mortality. Results from the various analyses indicated the importance of considering particle size, composition, and source information in modeling of particle pollution health effects. Of the independent mortality predictors considered, particle exposure measures related to the respirable and/or toxic fraction of the aerosols, such as fine particles and sulfates, were most consistently and significantly associated with the reported SMSA-specific total annual mortality rates. On the other hand, particle mass measures that included coarse particles (e.g., total suspended particles and inhalable particles) were often found to be nonsignificant predictors of total mortality. Furthermore, based on the application of fine particle source apportionment, particles from industrial sources (e.g., from iron/steel emissions) and from coal combustion were suggested to be more significant contributors to human mortality than soil-derived particles.
我们分析了1980年美国生命统计数据以及硫酸盐、细颗粒物、可吸入颗粒物和总悬浮颗粒物的现有环境空气污染数据库。通过多元回归分析,我们对各种颗粒物指标与总死亡率之间的关联进行了横断面分析。各种分析结果表明,在模拟颗粒物污染对健康的影响时,考虑粒径、成分和来源信息非常重要。在所考虑的独立死亡率预测因素中,与气溶胶的可吸入和/或有毒部分相关的颗粒物暴露指标,如细颗粒物和硫酸盐,与报告的特定标准都市统计区(SMSA)年度总死亡率最一致且显著相关。另一方面,包括粗颗粒物(如总悬浮颗粒物和可吸入颗粒物)在内的颗粒物质量指标,通常被发现对总死亡率的预测不显著。此外,基于细颗粒物源解析的应用,工业源(如钢铁排放)和煤炭燃烧产生的颗粒物被认为比土壤来源的颗粒物对人类死亡率的贡献更大。