Hua Ting, Zhao Wenwu, Cherubini Francesco, Hu Xiangping, Pereira Paulo
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China.
Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China.
Landsc Ecol. 2021;36(12):3451-3471. doi: 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9. Epub 2021 Aug 24.
Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change's effect on ecosystem services.
This study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change's effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning.
We used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.
Carbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure.
This study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9.
气候变化对生态系统服务产生了巨大影响。近期量化此类影响的尝试主要集中在流域或更大尺度上，或者使用的时间段有限，很大程度上忽略了高分辨率的长期趋势观测，从而影响了对气候变化对生态系统服务影响的认识。
本研究对气候变化对生态系统服务的影响进行了详细且具有空间明确性的识别，并为决策和气候变化适应规划提供了直观的地图。
我们使用了生态系统服务评估的长期时间序列和各种未来气候情景，以量化青藏高原生态系统服务对气候变化的敏感性和未来暴露程度。
碳固存（CS）和栖息地质量显著增长，而蓄水能力未显示出任何趋势。这些生态系统服务的敏感性模式差异很大。对于碳固存而言，尽管敏感性程度不高，但超过一半的像素对气候变化表现出正敏感性。生态系统服务对未来气候变化的暴露存在显著的空间异质性，未来气候变化程度的增加会提高暴露强度。
本研究阐明了生态系统服务与气候驱动因素之间复杂的空间关联，这些发现有助于在全球变暖背景下优化地方应对策略。例如，现有保护区在应对未来气候变化对生态系统服务的干扰方面存在明显的保护缺口，尤其是在研究区域的东南部。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10980 - 021 - 01320 - 9获取的补充材料。
