College of Resource and Environmental Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, China.
Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Shijiazhuang, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Sep 1;16(9):e0256710. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256710. eCollection 2021.
Land prices are the key problem of urban land management, with prices of residential land being the most sensitive and the strongest social reflection among the different land types. Exploring spatial and temporal variation of residential land prices and the effect of land market factors on residential land prices can help the government formulate targeted regulations and policies. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of residential land prices and the factors influencing the land market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on land transaction data from 2014-2017 using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show the following: ① Residential land prices in Beijing and Tianjin are significantly higher than those in other regions, while Zhangjiakou, Chengde, and western mountainous areas have the lowest residential land prices. Over time, a development trend of residential land price polycentricity gradually emerged, and the locational correlation has gradually increased. ② Under the influence of the land finance model of local governments in China, three factors, namely, the land stock utilization rate, revenue from residential land transfers, and the growth of residential land transaction areas, have significantly contributed to the increase in residential land prices. ③ Under the land market supply and demand mechanism and government management, four indicators, namely, the land supply rate, the per capita residential land supply area, the degree of marketization of the residential land supply, and the frequency of residential land transactions, have suppressed the rise in residential land prices. ④ The overall effect of land market factors on residential land prices in the central and northern regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is stronger than that in the southern regions, which may be related to the more active land market and stricter macromanagement policies in Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas.
土地价格是城市土地管理的核心问题，住宅用地价格是不同土地类型中最敏感和最能反映社会的。探索住宅用地价格的时空变化以及土地市场因素对住宅用地价格的影响，可以帮助政府制定有针对性的法规和政策。本研究基于 2014-2017 年的土地交易数据，利用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）和地理加权回归（GWR）模型，分析了京津冀地区住宅用地价格的时空演变及其土地市场影响因素。结果表明：①北京和天津的住宅用地价格明显高于其他地区，而张家口、承德和西部山区的住宅用地价格最低。随着时间的推移，住宅用地价格逐渐呈现出多中心化的发展趋势，空间相关性逐渐增强。②在中国地方政府土地金融模式的影响下，土地储备利用率、住宅用地出让金收入和住宅用地交易面积增长率三个因素显著促进了住宅用地价格的上涨。③在土地市场供求机制和政府管理下，土地供应率、人均住宅用地供应量、住宅用地供应市场化程度和住宅用地交易频率四个指标抑制了住宅用地价格的上涨。④北京、天津和河北中北部地区土地市场因素对住宅用地价格的整体影响强于南部地区，这可能与北京、天津及周边地区土地市场更加活跃和宏观管理政策更加严格有关。
