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不确定性与保险需求:自我控制如何管理最优决策的理论模型

Uncertainty and Demand for Insurance: A Theoretical Model of How Self-Control Manages the Optimal Decision-Making.

作者信息

Adamo Mattia, Malizia Andrea P

机构信息

Laboratory for the Analysis of CompleX Economic Systems (AXES), IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, Lucca, Italy.

Molecular Mind Laboratory (MoMiLab), IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, Lucca, Italy.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2021 Aug 17;12:700289. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.700289. eCollection 2021.

DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.700289
PMID:34484048
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8415836/
Abstract

With the present work, we aim to mark a beginning line on the study of decision-making of potential consumers in the insurance sector, with the long-term purpose of defining the optimal cognitive processes to be undertaken when deciding whether to purchase insurance or not. Decision-making in conditions of uncertainty is influenced by the dual-self model doers/planner integrated with the hot-cold states and prospect utility function. Thus, we present a theoretical model of choice-making to evaluate the level of optimal self-control necessary to be exerted if the individual is either in the hot or in the cold state depending on the arousal. This theoretical choice-making model lays the ground for the decision journey by following the long-term utility and avoiding gross mistakes that could lead the consumer not to insure, when the odds suggest doing it, or vice versa, in situations when it would not be necessary.

摘要

通过本研究,我们旨在为保险领域潜在消费者的决策研究划定起跑线,其长期目标是确定在决定是否购买保险时应采取的最佳认知过程。不确定性条件下的决策受与热冷状态及前景效用函数相结合的双自我模型(行动者/计划者)影响。因此,我们提出了一个选择决策的理论模型,以评估个体根据唤醒状态处于热状态或冷状态时所需施加的最佳自我控制水平。这个理论选择决策模型通过遵循长期效用并避免可能导致消费者在赔率表明应该投保时不投保,或者反之在不必要投保的情况下投保的重大错误,为决策过程奠定了基础。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/e83c052e4fff/fpsyg-12-700289-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/7f319eaabf44/fpsyg-12-700289-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/e4363f79c309/fpsyg-12-700289-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/e83c052e4fff/fpsyg-12-700289-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/7f319eaabf44/fpsyg-12-700289-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/e4363f79c309/fpsyg-12-700289-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4923/8415836/e83c052e4fff/fpsyg-12-700289-g0003.jpg

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