Institute of Geographical Sciences, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center for Geographic Information Technology of Wisdom Central Plain, Zhengzhou 450052, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Aug 25;18(17):8960. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18178960.
Water shortage and pollution have become prominent in the arid regions of northwest China, seriously affecting human survival and sustainable development. The Bosten Lake basin has been considered as an example of an arid region in northwest China, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model has been used to quantitatively evaluate the future water yield and water purification services for four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The results show that for the four RCP scenarios, the annual average precipitation in 2020-2050 decreases compared to that in 1985-2015; the area of cultivated land and unused land decreases, and the area of other land-use types increases from 2015 to 2050. The water yield service reduces, while the water purification service increases from 2015 to 2050 in the Bosten Lake basin. In 2050, the water yield and water purification services are the best for the RCP6.0 scenario, and are the worse for the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The distribution of the water yield and water purification services show a gradual decline from northwest to southeast.
中国西北地区缺水和水污染问题日益突出，严重影响了人类的生存和可持续发展。博斯腾湖流域被视为中国西北地区干旱区的一个典型例子，采用综合生态系统服务和权衡评估（InVEST）模型，对四个代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景下未来的产水量和水净化服务进行了定量评估。结果表明，对于四个 RCP 情景，2020-2050 年的年平均降水量较 1985-2015 年减少；耕地和未利用地面积减少，其他土地利用类型面积从 2015 年增加到 2050 年。博斯腾湖流域的产水服务减少，而水净化服务从 2015 年增加到 2050 年。在 2050 年，RCP6.0 情景下的产水量和水净化服务最佳，而 RCP4.5 情景和 RCP8.5 情景下的产水量和水净化服务最差。产水量和水净化服务的分布呈现出从西北向东南逐渐减少的趋势。
