Levin Simon A, Anderies John M, Adger Neil, Barrett Scott, Bennett Elena M, Cardenas Juan Camilo, Carpenter Stephen R, Crépin Anne-Sophie, Ehrlich Paul, Fischer Joern, Folke Carl, Kautsky Nils, Kling Catherine, Nyborg Karine, Polasky Stephen, Scheffer Marten, Segerson Kathleen, Shogren Jason, van den Bergh Jeroen, Walker Brian, Weber Elke U, Wilen James
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 USA.
School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287 USA.
Ecosystems. 2022;25(3):697-711. doi: 10.1007/s10021-021-00680-2. Epub 2021 Sep 7.
The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but "once-in-a-century" weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wildfire and even volcanic events that change ecosystems and disturbance regimes, threaten the sustainability of our life-support systems, and challenge the robustness and resilience of societies. Dealing with extremes will require new approaches and large-scale collective action. Preemptive measures can increase general resilience, a first line of protection, while more specific reactive responses are developed. Preemptive measures also can minimize the negative effects of events that cannot be avoided. In this paper, we first explore approaches to prevention, mitigation and adaptation, drawing inspiration from how evolutionary challenges have made biological systems robust and resilient, and from the general theory of complex adaptive systems. We argue further that proactive steps that go beyond will be necessary to reduce unacceptable consequences.
极端事件（包括外部和内部事件）发生频率的不断增加，给我们的社会带来了挑战。当前的大流行就是一个典型例子；但“百年一遇”的天气事件也越来越普遍，导致侵蚀、野火甚至火山活动，这些改变了生态系统和干扰机制，威胁着我们生命支持系统的可持续性，并挑战着社会的稳健性和复原力。应对极端情况需要新的方法和大规模的集体行动。预防性措施可以增强总体复原力，这是第一道防线，同时还要制定更具体的应对措施。预防性措施还可以将无法避免的事件的负面影响降至最低。在本文中，我们首先从进化挑战如何使生物系统变得稳健和有复原力以及复杂适应系统的一般理论中汲取灵感，探索预防、减轻和适应的方法。我们进一步认为，有必要采取超越这些的积极措施，以减少不可接受的后果。
