Junquera Victoria, Schlüter Maja, Rocha Juan, Wunderling Nico, Levin Simon A, Rubenstein Daniel I, Castella Jean-Christophe, Meyfroidt Patrick
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Jun 21;11(6):231571. doi: 10.1098/rsos.231571. eCollection 2024 Jun.
A crop boom is a sudden, nonlinear and intense expansion of a new crop. Despite their large impacts, boom-bust dynamics are not well understood; booms are largely unpredictable and difficult to steer once they unfold. Based on the striking resemblances between land regime shifts and crop booms, we apply complex systems theory, highlighting the potential for regime shifts, to provide new insights about crop boom dynamics. We analyse qualitative and quantitative data of rubber and banana plantation expansion in two forest frontier regions of northern Laos. We show that , including previous booms, explain the (why) of booms, and like policy and market changes explain their (when). Yet, the most important features of booms, their and nonlinearity (how), strongly depended on internal self-reinforcing . We identify built-in feedbacks (neighbourhood effects and imitation) and emergent feedbacks (land rush) and show that they were in nature, from plot to region and subject to thresholds. We suggest that these are regular features of booms and propose a definition and causal-mechanistic explanation of crop booms, examining the overlap between booms and regime shifts and the role of frontiers. We then identify opportunities for management interventions before, during and after booms.
作物繁荣是指一种新作物突然、非线性且剧烈的扩张。尽管其影响巨大，但繁荣-萧条动态却并未得到很好的理解；繁荣在很大程度上不可预测，一旦出现就难以掌控。基于土地状态转变与作物繁荣之间的显著相似性，我们应用复杂系统理论，强调状态转变的可能性，以提供有关作物繁荣动态的新见解。我们分析了老挝北部两个森林前沿地区橡胶和香蕉种植园扩张的定性和定量数据。我们表明，包括先前的繁荣在内，解释了繁荣的（原因），而诸如政策和市场变化等 解释了它们的（时间）。然而，繁荣最重要的特征，即它们的 和非线性（方式），在很大程度上取决于内部自我强化的 。我们识别出内在反馈（邻里效应和模仿）和涌现反馈（土地抢购），并表明它们本质上是 ，从地块到区域各不相同且受阈值限制。我们认为这些是繁荣的常规特征，并提出作物繁荣的定义和因果机制解释，考察繁荣与状态转变之间的重叠以及前沿的作用。然后我们确定在繁荣之前、期间和之后进行管理干预的机会。
