McGregor Vidette L, Horn Peter, Dutilloy Adele, Datta Samik, Rogers Alice, Porobic Javier, Dunn Alistair, Tuck Ian
Fisheries, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Wellington, New Zealand.
Pachyornis Science, Wellington, New Zealand.
PeerJ. 2021 Jul 19;9:e11712. doi: 10.7717/peerj.11712. eCollection 2021.
The Tasman and Golden Bays (TBGB) are a semi-enclosed embayment system in New Zealand that supports numerous commercial and recreational activities. We present three ecosystem models of the TBGB ecosystem with varying levels of complexity, aimed at contributing as tools to aid in understanding this ecosystem and its responses to anthropogenic and natural pressures. We describe the process of data compilation through to model validation and analyse the importance of knowledge gaps with respect to model dynamics and results. We compare responses in all three models to historical fishing, and analyse similarities and differences in the dynamics of the three models. We assessed the most complex of the models against initialisation uncertainty and sensitivity to oceanographic variability and found it most sensitive to the latter. We recommend that scenarios relating to ecosystem dynamics of the TBGB ecosystem include sensitivities, especially oceanographic uncertainty, and compare responses across all three models where it is possible to do so.
塔斯曼湾和金湾（TBGB）是新西兰的一个半封闭海湾系统，支持众多商业和娱乐活动。我们展示了TBGB生态系统的三种不同复杂程度的生态系统模型，旨在作为工具帮助理解该生态系统及其对人为和自然压力的响应。我们描述了从数据汇编到模型验证的过程，并分析了知识差距对模型动态和结果的重要性。我们比较了所有三个模型对历史捕捞的响应，并分析了三个模型动态的异同。我们针对初始化不确定性和对海洋变化的敏感性评估了最复杂的模型，发现它对后者最为敏感。我们建议，与TBGB生态系统生态动态相关的情景应包括敏感性，尤其是海洋学不确定性，并在可能的情况下比较所有三个模型的响应。
