School of Economics and Management, University of Minho, 4710-57 Braga, Portugal.
CIBIO-InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade do Porto, Rua Padre Armando Quintas, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661 Vairão, Vila do Conde, Portugal; Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, S/N, Edifício FC4, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jan 20;805:150320. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150320. Epub 2021 Sep 14.
Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.
气候变化预计将产生强烈的社会生态影响，具有全球性，但特别是区域性和地方性挑战。为了评估特定领土的气候脆弱性，有必要评估其对气候变化的暴露程度及其适应能力。本研究描述了葡萄牙北部塔梅加和索萨地区适应气候变化行动计划的制定情况。该计划的目标是确定气候变化对水资源、农业、森林、生物多样性和社会经济部门的主要影响，并制定一个计划，通过跨学科视角融合地方和科学知识。本研究描述了一种方法，该方法结合了模型方法，应用于不同部门，并结合了参与性方法，基于对当地行为者感知的分析。研究结果表明，目标地区的温度将普遍升高，降水量将减少，这将对所有研究的社会生态维度产生负面影响。总体而言，当地企业和机构代理人认为该地区的主要产业和旅游业部门最脆弱。所描述的框架展示了相关科学专家和当地从业者之间的参与过程，以及了解气候变化的影响和支持适应计划的共同设计的重要性，这反过来又可以指导政治和经济决策，以有效实施该计划。此外，还讨论了在这个过程中遇到的困难和挑战，以支持未来的地方适应计划和战略。
