Radiographic quantification of alveolar bone level changes. A 2-year longitudinal study in man.

The "random burst" theory has recently been proposed as an explanation of the pattern of periodontal disease progression. The theory predicts that the progression of bone loss at individual sites is not dependent upon previous bone loss and age. A longitudinal radiographic study was designed to test this hypothesis, and to describe the changes in bone level over 2 years in a group of 180 subjects (18-68 years of age) who were not under systematic periodontal treatment. The results indicated that 94% of the sites did not show significant changes in the alveolar bone level during the observation period. The mean annual bone loss for the total population was 0.11 mm. By regressing longitudinal bone loss upon age, it was shown that the rate of bone loss increased rapidly between 33 and 56 years of age while a different pattern was shown for the age intervals 18-32 and 57-68 years. Also, the rate of bone loss increased with increasing initial bone loss. This was less evident in the oldest age group. It was concluded that the progression of bone loss in the present material is consistent with a "burst" theory. However, the progression did not occur randomly with regard to previous loss of alveolar bone and time.