College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Feb;29(9):13211-13225. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-16670-9. Epub 2021 Sep 28.
This paper examines the effect of climate change and financial development on agricultural production in ASEAN-4, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand from 1990 to 2016. Further, we explore the role of renewable energy, institutional quality, and human capital on agricultural production. Since the shocks in one country affect another country, we use second-generation modeling techniques to find out the relationship among the variables. The Westerlund (2007) cointegration tests confirm long-run relationship among the variables. The results from cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model reveal that climate change negatively affects agricultural production; on the other hand, renewable energy, human capital, and institutional quality affect positively agricultural production. Moreover, renewable energy utilization, human capital, and intuitional quality moderates the effect of carbon emission on agricultural production. In addition, a U-shaped relationship exists between financial development and agricultural production, suggesting that financial development improves agricultural production only after reaching a certain threshold. Hence, this study suggests that ASEAN-4 countries must adopt flexible financial and agricultural policies so that farmers would be benefitted and agricultural production can be increased.
本文考察了 1990 年至 2016 年期间，东盟 4 国（印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国）气候变化和金融发展对农业生产的影响。此外，我们还探讨了可再生能源、制度质量和人力资本对农业生产的作用。由于一国的冲击会影响到另一个国家，我们使用第二代建模技术来找出变量之间的关系。Westerlund（2007）的协整检验证实了变量之间存在长期关系。来自横截面增强自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）模型的结果表明，气候变化对农业生产有负面影响；另一方面，可再生能源、人力资本和制度质量对农业生产有积极影响。此外，可再生能源利用、人力资本和制度质量调节了碳排放对农业生产的影响。此外，金融发展与农业生产之间存在着 U 型关系，这表明金融发展只有在达到一定的门槛后才会提高农业生产。因此，本研究建议东盟 4 国必须采取灵活的金融和农业政策，使农民受益，增加农业生产。
