School of Marine Science and Policy, College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware, Delaware, USA.
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Colorado, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Jan 1;301:113779. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113779. Epub 2021 Sep 28.
The Ballast Water Management Convention can decrease the introduction risk of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens, yet the Convention increases shipping costs and causes subsequent economic impacts. This paper examines whether the Convention generates disproportionate invasion risk reduction results and economic impacts on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Risk reduction is estimated with an invasion risk assessment model based on a higher-order network, and the effects of the regulation on national economies and trade are estimated with an integrated shipping cost and computable general equilibrium modeling framework. Then we use the Lorenz curve to examine if the regulation generates risk or economic inequality among regions. Risk reduction ratios of all regions (except Singapore) are above 99%, which proves the effectiveness of the Convention. The Gini coefficient of 0.66 shows the inequality in risk changes relative to income levels among regions, but risk reductions across all nations vary without particularly high risks for SIDS and LDCs than for large economies. Similarly, we reveal inequality in economic impacts relative to income levels (the Gini coefficient is 0.58), but there is no evidence that SIDS and LDCs are disproportionately impacted compared to more developed regions. Most changes in GDP, real exports, and real imports of studied regions are minor (smaller than 0.1%). However, there are more noteworthy changes for select sectors and trade partners including Togo, Bangladesh, and Dominican Republic, whose exports may decrease for textiles and metal and chemicals. We conclude the Convention decreases biological invasion risk and does not generate disproportionate negative impacts on SIDS and LDCs.
《压载水管理公约》可以降低有害水生生物和病原体的引入风险，但该公约会增加航运成本并产生后续的经济影响。本文探讨了《公约》是否会对小岛屿发展中国家和最不发达国家产生不成比例的入侵风险降低效果和经济影响。风险降低是通过基于高阶网络的入侵风险评估模型来估计的，而该规定对国民经济和贸易的影响是通过综合航运成本和可计算一般均衡建模框架来估计的。然后，我们使用洛伦兹曲线来检验该规定是否会在区域之间产生风险或经济不平等。除新加坡外，所有地区（地区）的风险降低率都在 99%以上，这证明了该公约的有效性。0.66 的基尼系数表明，相对于区域收入水平，风险变化的不平等程度，但所有国家的风险降低情况各不相同，与大型经济体相比，小岛屿发展中国家和最不发达国家的风险并不特别高。同样，我们揭示了相对于收入水平的经济影响的不平等（基尼系数为 0.58），但没有证据表明小岛屿发展中国家和最不发达国家受到不成比例的影响，与较发达地区相比。受研究地区 GDP、实际出口和实际进口变化较小（小于 0.1%）。然而，对于包括多哥、孟加拉国和多米尼加共和国在内的一些特定部门和贸易伙伴来说，变化更为显著，其纺织品、金属和化工产品的出口可能会减少。我们的结论是，《公约》降低了生物入侵风险，对小岛屿发展中国家和最不发达国家没有产生不成比例的负面影响。
