Wang Zhaojun, Kacimi Adel, Xu Hailian, Du Mingxi
Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Rd, Edgewater, Maryland 21037, United States.
Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Laboratory, Department of Marine and Coastal Environment, National Higher School of Marine Sciences and Coastal Management, 16320 Algiers, Algeria.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Apr 4;57(13):5275-5283. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c09119. Epub 2023 Mar 20.
A trade policy could generate both economic and environmental impacts. This work is focused on the impacts of a bilateral trade policy on ballast water-mediated nonindigenous species (NIS) spread risk. Taking the hypothetical Sino-US trade restriction as an example, we integrate a computable general equilibrium model and a higher-order NIS spread risk assessment model to examine the impacts of bilateral trade policy on both the economy and NIS spread risks. We have two important findings. First, the Sino-US trade restriction would cause decreases in NIS spread risks to China and the US, as well as to three quarters of worldwide countries/regions. However, the rest one fourth would experience increased NIS spread risks. Second, the relationship between changes in exports and changes in NIS spread risks might not be directly proportional. This is observed with 46% of countries and regions that would see their exports increase but their NIS spread risks drop, with positive impacts on both their economies and environment under the Sino-US trade restriction. These results reveal both broader global impacts as well as the decoupled economic and ecological impacts of a bilateral trade policy. These broader impacts demonstrate the necessity for national governments, which are parties to bilateral agreements to give due consideration to the economic and environmental impacts on countries and regions outside of the agreement.
一项贸易政策可能会产生经济和环境影响。这项工作聚焦于双边贸易政策对压载水介导的非本土物种（NIS）传播风险的影响。以假设的中美贸易限制为例，我们整合了一个可计算一般均衡模型和一个高阶非本土物种传播风险评估模型，以研究双边贸易政策对经济和非本土物种传播风险的影响。我们有两个重要发现。第一，中美贸易限制将导致中国、美国以及全球四分之三的国家/地区的非本土物种传播风险降低。然而，其余四分之一的国家/地区将面临非本土物种传播风险增加的情况。第二，出口变化与非本土物种传播风险变化之间的关系可能并非直接成比例。46%的国家和地区会出现出口增加但非本土物种传播风险下降的情况，在中美贸易限制下，这对它们的经济和环境都有积极影响。这些结果揭示了双边贸易政策更广泛的全球影响以及经济和生态影响的脱钩。这些更广泛的影响表明，作为双边协议缔约方的各国政府有必要适当考虑协议之外国家和地区的经济和环境影响。
