Ashrafi Saeed, Kerachian Reza, Pourmoghim Parastoo, Behboudian Massoud, Motlaghzadeh Kasra
School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 1;806(Pt 3):150702. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150702. Epub 2021 Sep 30.
This paper presents a new framework for evaluating the sustainability of basin-wide ecosystem services (ESs) including provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services. In this framework, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODSIM models and experts' opinions are used to evaluate the ESs. To show the applicability of the proposed framework, it is applied to the Zarrinehrud river basin under three different climate change (CC) scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for two different time horizons (i.e., 2020-2049 and 2020-2098). This basin is the main water supplier of the largest hypersaline lake in the Middle East, Lake Urmia. In the next step, 128 water resources management (WRM) scenarios are taken into account considering the projects defined by Urmia Lake Restoration National Committee (ULRNC). All ecosystem services are evaluated considering all WRM and CC scenarios. Finally, a group COPRAS-based decision-making approach is used to determine the best WRM scenario under climate change. The results show that WRM scenario 128 is the best scenario for improving ecosystem services in the study area. This scenario includes some projects such as allocating water to the lake from new resources, rehabilitating irrigation and draining networks, and improving cropping patterns.
本文提出了一个新的框架，用于评估流域范围内生态系统服务（ESs）的可持续性，包括供给服务、调节服务、支持服务和文化服务。在此框架中，利用土壤和水资源评估工具（SWAT）、MODSIM模型以及专家意见来评估生态系统服务。为展示所提框架的适用性，将其应用于扎里内赫鲁德河流域，针对三种不同的气候变化（CC）情景（即代表性浓度路径4.5、6.0和8.5）以及两个不同的时间跨度（即2020 - 2049年和2020 - 2098年）。该流域是中东最大的超盐湖乌尔米耶湖的主要供水源。下一步，考虑乌尔米耶湖恢复国家委员会（ULRNC）确定的项目，纳入128种水资源管理（WRM）情景。综合考虑所有水资源管理和气候变化情景对所有生态系统服务进行评估。最后，采用基于群体COPRAS的决策方法来确定气候变化下最佳的水资源管理情景。结果表明，水资源管理情景128是研究区域改善生态系统服务的最佳情景。该情景包括一些项目，如从新水源向湖泊供水、修复灌溉和排水网络以及改善种植模式。
