Ph.D. Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Apr 15;284:112025. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112025. Epub 2021 Feb 5.
This paper introduces a new methodology for quantifying the total resilience of water resources management scenarios. The climate change impacts on water supply and demand have been investigated using a calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and a MODSIM water allocation model. Several criteria have been defined to measure five aspects of water resources systems resilience. The first aspect defines resilience as system strength against crossing a performance threshold (reliability). In the second aspect, if the system crosses the performance threshold, the recovery rate of the system after a disturbance is evaluated. The violation from the performance threshold has been measured as the third aspect (vulnerability), which considers the failure's severity. The fourth aspect is the resilience under extreme events with unknown occurrence probability, which includes four sub-criteria, namely rapidity, robustness, resourcefulness, and redundancy (4 R). Finally, the fifth criterion considers the ecological condition of the system (ecological index). To compare water resources management scenarios (alternatives), an analytical evidential reasoning-based (ER) approach has been used. To show the applicability of the proposed methodology, it has been applied to the Zarrinehrud river basin, which is the leading water supplier of Lake Urmia in Iran. As one of the largest saline lakes globally, this lake has been suffering from drastic desertification and salinization in the past two decades. The grade-based results of the performance criteria are synthesized into a grade-based total resilience criterion to facilitate the comparison of water resources management scenarios. It is shown that a scenario which results in 40% reduction in agricultural water demand until 2023 has the highest resilience and an acceptable construction and operational cost.
本文提出了一种新的方法来量化水资源管理方案的总弹性。使用经过校准的土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 和 MODSIM 水资源分配模型调查了气候变化对供水和需水的影响。已经定义了几个标准来衡量水资源系统弹性的五个方面。第一个方面将弹性定义为系统抵抗超过性能阈值的能力（可靠性）。在第二个方面，如果系统超过了性能阈值，则评估系统在受到干扰后的恢复速度。将违反性能阈值作为第三个方面（脆弱性）进行衡量，考虑了故障的严重程度。第四个方面是在未知发生概率的极端事件下的弹性，其中包括四个子标准，即快速性、稳健性、智谋性和冗余性（4R）。最后，第五个标准考虑了系统的生态条件（生态指数）。为了比较水资源管理方案（替代方案），使用了基于分析证据推理的（ER）方法。为了展示所提出方法的适用性，已经将其应用于伊朗乌鲁米耶湖的主要供水河流扎林胡德河流域。作为全球最大的咸水湖之一，这个湖在过去二十年中遭受了严重的荒漠化和盐化。将基于等级的性能标准的结果综合为基于等级的总弹性标准，以方便比较水资源管理方案。结果表明，到 2023 年减少 40%农业用水需求的方案具有最高的弹性和可接受的建设和运营成本。
