School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Oct 10;842:156845. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156845. Epub 2022 Jun 21.
Bankrupt ecosystems are those that cannot appropriately provide all their ecosystem services. In this paper, a novel bankruptcy-based methodology is developed to manage ecosystem services. To test the applicability of the developed methodology, it is used in the Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran. First, an integrated framework is used to assess regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services of the study area under three climate change scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Then, for each ecosystem service, an aggregated utility is calculated that takes into account the stakeholders' different opinions toward ecosystem services. The utilities of the ecosystem services show that the Zarrinehrud river basin is bankrupt. To manage this ecosystem, six bankruptcy methods of Adjusted Proportional, Constrained Equal Loss, Constrained Equal Award, Piniles, Talmud, and Hybrid are developed and used in the study area. In this study, the summation of ecosystem services' aggregated utilities under each management scenario is considered as an asset, and all mentioned bankruptcy methods are used to redistribute these assets to different ecosystem services. Considering aggregated utilities, redistributed utilities, and each ecosystem service's claim, two different Root Mean Square Error-based approaches are developed to find the most applicable management scenario in a bankruptcy condition. Using the mentioned approaches, management scenario 128, which is comprised of all management packages, is chosen as the best option under all climate change scenarios. This scenario includes projects such as improving cropping patterns, allocating water to the lake from new water resources, and rehabilitating irrigation and draining systems. Moreover, analyzing the results derived from different bankruptcy methods shows that the Talmud, Hybrid, and Constrained Equal Loss methods have the best performance.
破产的生态系统是指无法适当提供其所有生态系统服务的系统。本文提出了一种基于破产的新方法来管理生态系统服务。为了测试所开发方法的适用性，将其应用于伊朗扎林赫鲁德河流域。首先，使用综合框架评估了研究区域在代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5、6.0 和 8.5 三种气候变化情景下的调节、支撑、供应和文化生态系统服务。然后，针对每种生态系统服务，计算了一个综合效用，考虑了利益相关者对生态系统服务的不同意见。生态系统服务的效用表明，扎林赫鲁德河流域已经破产。为了管理该生态系统，开发并在研究区域中使用了六种破产方法，包括调整比例法、约束平等损失法、约束平等奖励法、皮涅斯法、塔木德法和混合法。在本研究中，将每种管理方案下生态系统服务综合效用的总和视为一种资产，并使用上述所有破产方法将这些资产重新分配给不同的生态系统服务。考虑到综合效用、重新分配的效用以及每种生态系统服务的主张，开发了两种基于均方根误差的不同方法，以在破产条件下找到最适用的管理方案。使用所提到的方法，在所有气候变化情景下，管理方案 128 被选为最佳选择，该方案包括改进种植模式、从新水资源中为湖泊分配水以及修复灌溉和排水系统等项目。此外，分析不同破产方法得出的结果表明，塔木德法、混合法和约束平等损失法的表现最佳。
