近年来美国东海岸热带气旋降水极值的增加。
Recent increases in tropical cyclone precipitation extremes over the US east coast.
机构信息
Department of Geography, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN 47405;
Department of Geography, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN 47405.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Oct 12;118(41). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2105636118.
The impacts of inland flooding caused by tropical cyclones (TCs), including loss of life, infrastructure disruption, and alteration of natural landscapes, have increased over recent decades. While these impacts are well documented, changes in TC precipitation extremes-the proximate cause of such inland flooding-have been more difficult to detect. Here, we present a latewood tree-ring-based record of seasonal (June 1 through October 15) TC precipitation sums (ΣTCP) from the region in North America that receives the most ΣTCP: coastal North and South Carolina. Our 319-y-long ΣTCP reconstruction reveals that ΣTCP extremes (≥0.95 quantile) have increased by 2 to 4 mm/decade since 1700 CE, with most of the increase occurring in the last 60 y. Consistent with the hypothesis that TCs are moving slower under anthropogenic climate change, we show that seasonal ΣTCP along the US East Coast are positively related to seasonal average TC duration and TC translation speed.
近年来，热带气旋（TC）引发的内陆洪水所造成的影响，包括生命损失、基础设施破坏和自然景观改变，呈上升趋势。尽管这些影响已经有了充分的记录，但 TC 降水极值（这种内陆洪水的直接原因）的变化却更难被察觉。在这里，我们提供了一份基于晚材树木年轮的北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州沿海地区（该地区接收的 TC 降水总和ΣTCP 最多）的季节性（6 月 1 日至 10 月 15 日）TC 降水总和ΣTCP 记录。我们的 319 年ΣTCP 重建结果表明，自 1700 年以来，ΣTCP 极值（≥0.95 分位数）每十年增加了 2 到 4 毫米，其中大部分增加发生在过去 60 年。与 TC 在人为气候变化下移动速度变慢的假设一致，我们表明美国东海岸的季节性ΣTCP 与季节性平均 TC 持续时间和 TC 平移速度呈正相关。
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