Yu Bing, Li Jiaye, Shang Songhao
School of Environment and Civil Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, 523808, China.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Disaster Prevention and Emergency Technologies for Urban Lifeline Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, 523808, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 28;15(1):27405. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13415-3.
Global warming has led to an increasing frequency of extreme climate events; however, existing studies have largely focused on individual extremes or selected pairs occurring at specific locations over relatively short time frames, with limited attention to the long-term spatial synchrony of multiple extremes across different geographic regions. This study addresses this gap by examining the synchrony of eight precipitation and temperature extreme climate events across China from 1930 to 2022, using monthly-scale data. We quantify synchrony using two indicators: the proportions of land area (LA) and population (Pop) affected by these events. Our results reveal that over the 93-year period, the annual LA increased approximately 3.5-fold, while Pop doubled, suggesting that land exposure is expanding faster than population exposure. Although underpopulated regions northwest of the Hu Huangyong Line exhibit generally lower exposure levels, they experience a higher rate of increase in land exposure compared to densely populated areas. Extreme wet and hot events drive more than 60% of the total increase in land area exposure. We also identify a significant shift in ecosystem exposure: forest lands were the most affected before 1956, but since then, grasslands have become the dominant ecosystem exposed, especially during the warmer months. This study enhances understanding of the long-term spatial synchrony of multiple extreme climate events in China and emphasizes the critical need to integrate climatic, ecological, and social vulnerabilities into adaptation strategies to effectively manage growing risks.
全球变暖导致极端气候事件的发生频率不断增加;然而,现有研究主要集中在相对较短时间内特定地点发生的个别极端事件或选定的成对极端事件,对不同地理区域多个极端事件的长期空间同步性关注有限。本研究通过使用月度尺度数据,考察1930年至2022年中国八种降水和温度极端气候事件的同步性,填补了这一空白。我们使用两个指标来量化同步性:受这些事件影响的陆地面积(LA)和人口(Pop)的比例。我们的结果显示,在这93年期间,年度陆地面积增加了约3.5倍,而人口增加了一倍,这表明陆地暴露的扩张速度快于人口暴露。尽管胡焕庸线以西人口稀少的地区总体暴露水平较低,但与人口密集地区相比,它们的陆地暴露增加率更高。极端湿润和炎热事件导致陆地面积暴露总增加量的60%以上。我们还发现生态系统暴露发生了显著变化:1956年以前,林地受影响最大,但自那时以来,草地已成为受影响的主要生态系统,尤其是在温暖月份。本研究增进了对中国多个极端气候事件长期空间同步性的理解,并强调迫切需要将气候、生态和社会脆弱性纳入适应战略,以有效管理不断增加的风险。