Rusin Tomasz M
Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-688 Warsaw, Poland.
Procedia Comput Sci. 2021;192:3291-3299. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.102. Epub 2021 Oct 1.
Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for three cities in Poland during third epidemic wave (March and April 2021) are shown. Difference between epidemic evolutions in third wave and previous waves caused by Covid UK variant is observed. Proposed algorithm allows one to manage epidemic locally by entering or releasing anti-Covid restrictions in groups of small administrative units.
提出了一种针对小型行政区(区)新冠疫情的稳健短期预测方法。通过识别过去疫情演变的相似阶段,可以获得特定地区疫情的短期预测。展示了波兰三个城市在第三波疫情(2021年3月和4月)期间的一周和两周预测示例。观察到第三波疫情与之前由新冠病毒英国变种导致的疫情演变之间的差异。所提出的算法允许通过在小型行政区组中实施或解除抗疫限制来进行局部疫情管理。