Lak Azadeh, Hakimian Pantea, Sharifi Ayyoob
Department of Planning and Urban Design, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences & Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS), Japan.
Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Dec;75:103410. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103410. Epub 2021 Sep 28.
The spread of the COVID-19 virus, which has caused abundant mortalities in human settlements, has drawn the attention of urban planners and policy-makers to the necessity of improving resilience to future pandemics. In this study, a set of indicators related to pandemic resilience were identified and used to develop a composite multi-dimensional pandemic resilience index for Tehran's neighborhoods. The physical, infrastructural, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions of pandemic resilience were defined considering the conditions of 351 neighborhoods through the exploratory factor analysis method. Accordingly, the pandemic resilience (PR) score of the neighborhoods was calculated. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation analysis was used to validate the PR scores by examining the correlation between the neighborhood PR scores and the number of confirmed cases. For this purpose, we used a sample consisting of 43,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the first five months of its spread. The test shows a statistically significant negative correlation between neighborhoods' resilience score and the cumulative number of confirmed patients in the neighborhoods (r= -.456, P<0.001). This study also tries to develop a new model to better understand health determinants of pandemic resilience. The proposed model can inform planners and policymakers to take appropriate measures to create more pandemic-resilient urban neighborhoods.
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）病毒的传播已在人类聚居地造成大量死亡，这引起了城市规划者和政策制定者对提高应对未来大流行病复原力必要性的关注。在本研究中，确定了一组与大流行复原力相关的指标，并用于为德黑兰各社区制定一个综合的多维度大流行复原力指数。通过探索性因素分析方法，考虑351个社区的情况，界定了大流行复原力的物理、基础设施、社会经济和环境维度。据此，计算了各社区的大流行复原力（PR）得分。此外，通过检验社区PR得分与确诊病例数之间的相关性，使用皮尔逊相关分析来验证PR得分。为此，我们使用了在病毒传播的前五个月中由43000名确诊COVID-19患者组成的样本。测试表明，社区复原力得分与社区确诊患者累计数之间存在统计学上显著的负相关（r = -0.456，P<0.001）。本研究还试图开发一种新模型，以更好地理解大流行复原力的健康决定因素。所提出的模型可为规划者和政策制定者提供信息，以便采取适当措施创建更具大流行复原力的城市社区。
