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中国新冠疫情初期建筑环境属性与疫情传播的关联

Association of built environment attributes with the spread of COVID-19 at its initial stage in China.

作者信息

Li Shuangjin, Ma Shuang, Zhang Junyi

机构信息

Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashi Hiroshima, 739-8529, Japan.

Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 153-8904, Japan.

出版信息

Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Apr;67:102752. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.102752. Epub 2021 Feb 3.

Abstract

Evidence of the association of built environment (BE) attributes with the spread of COVID-19 remains limited. As an additional effort, this study regresses a ratio of accumulative confirmed infection cases at the city level in China on both inter-city and intra-city BE attributes. A mixed geographically weighted regression model was estimated to accommodate both local and global effects of BE attributes. It is found that spatial clusters are mostly related to low infections in 28.63 % of the cities. The density of point of interests around railway stations, travel time by public transport to activity centers, and the number of flights from Hubei Province are associated with the spread. On average, the most influential BE attribute is the number of trains from Hubei Province. Higher infection ratios are associated with higher values of between-ness centrality in 70.98 % of the cities. In 79.22 % of the cities, the percentage of the aging population shows a negative association. A positive association of the population density in built-up areas is found in 68.75 % of county-level cities. It is concluded that the countermeasures in China could have well reflected spatial heterogeneities, and the BE could be further improved to mitigate the impacts of future pandemics.

摘要

建成环境(BE)属性与新冠病毒传播之间的关联证据仍然有限。作为一项补充研究,本研究将中国城市层面累计确诊感染病例的比例,与城市间和城市内的建成环境属性进行回归分析。估计了一个混合地理加权回归模型,以兼顾建成环境属性的局部和全局效应。研究发现,在28.63%的城市中,空间集群大多与低感染率相关。火车站周边的兴趣点密度、乘坐公共交通前往活动中心的出行时间,以及来自湖北省的航班数量与疫情传播有关。平均而言,最具影响力的建成环境属性是来自湖北省的列车数量。在70.98%的城市中,较高的感染率与较高的中介中心性值相关。在79.22%的城市中,老年人口比例呈现负相关。在68.75%的县级城市中,建成区人口密度呈现正相关。研究得出结论,中国的应对措施能够很好地反映空间异质性,建成环境可以进一步改善,以减轻未来疫情的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0d41/7857111/e2b44d641994/gr1_lrg.jpg

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