Centre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.
South Western Sydney Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.
Med J Aust. 2022 Jan 17;216(1):39-42. doi: 10.5694/mja2.51291. Epub 2021 Oct 11.
To estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border.
Population-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R = 3.5 or 7.0), vaccine rollout speed (slow or fast), and scale of border re-opening (mean of 2500 or 13 000 overseas arrivals per day).
Simulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout).
Numbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022.
In scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R = 7.0), opening the international border on either scale was followed by surges in both infections and hospitalisations that would require public health measures beyond mask wearing and social distancing to avoid overwhelming the health system. Reducing the number of hospitalisations to manageable levels required several cycles of additional social and mobility restrictions.
If highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.
估计澳大利亚重新开放国际边境后与 COVID-19 相关的住院人数。
对八种情景应用各种 SARS-CoV-2 传染性假设（基线 R = 3.5 或 7.0）、疫苗推出速度（缓慢或快速）和边境重新开放规模（每天平均 2500 或 13000 名海外入境者）的人群水平确定性隔室流行模型进行人口水平的确定性隔室流行建模。
模拟人群规模、年龄结构和基于年龄的接触率，基于澳大利亚人口的最新估计。我们假设 80%的 16 岁及以上人群接种疫苗覆盖率在 2021 年 10 月中旬（快速推出）或 2022 年 1 月初（缓慢推出）达到。
2021 年 12 月至 2022 年 12 月因 COVID-19 住院的人数。
在假设 SARS-CoV-2 变体高度传播（R = 7.0）的情景下，以任何规模开放国际边境都会导致感染和住院人数激增，这将需要采取公共卫生措施，除了戴口罩和保持社交距离外，还需要避免卫生系统不堪重负。要将住院人数降至可管理水平，需要多次实施额外的社会和流动性限制。
如果当地或海外存在高传染性的 SARS-CoV-2 变体，那么在 16 岁及以上人群中有 80%以上接种疫苗后，澳大利亚仍有可能发生大规模和破坏性的 COVID-19 疫情。在整个 2022 年，继续采取公共卫生措施限制疾病传播可能是必要的。
