College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China.
Communist Party China, Shandong Provincial Party School, Jinan, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Oct 14;16(10):e0258524. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258524. eCollection 2021.
With social and economic environment changes occurring in the world and deepening of the urbanization process, China's urban development exhibits a new phenomenon of growth and shrinkage fluctuations. The resource-based city shrinkage phenomenon is particularly prominent. Research on the commonalities and patterns of similar groups should be enhanced. We constructed an urban shrinkage evaluation index system from the three dimensions of population, economy and space. Accordingly, we explored the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of 175 resource-based cities in China from a multidimensional perspective with the entropy method, shrinkage model and transfer matrix method. The results indicated that most resource-based cities in China occurred in the non-shrinking state, but their development speed gradually decreased or even presented stagflation. The shrinkage measure-related results in the different dimensions revealed that the number of shrinking cities is increasing. The population, economic and comprehensive shrinkage levels were mainly slight and remained stable. The number of cities experiencing moderate and severe shrinkage was relatively small and mostly encompassed short-term shrinkage. Spatial shrinkage demonstrated a clear administrative hierarchy difference. Moreover, the spatial distribution range of shrinking cities in each dimension expanded and exhibited obviously similar characteristics, i.e., shrinking cities were relatively concentrated in Northeast China, while they were more scattered in other regions. Furthermore, the geodetector technique was applied to reveal the influencing factors of resource-based city growth and shrinkage. Based on the results, the change in the secondary industry output value share at the start of the study was the primary factor. The impact of each employment structure indicator from 2014 to 2018 was particularly significant. Comprehensive exploration of the shrinkage characteristics of this particular group of cities and their development behavior from a multidimensional perspective can provide an important reference for the transformation and high-quality development of resource-based cities.
随着世界社会经济环境变化和城市化进程的深化，中国城市发展呈现出新的增长和收缩波动现象。资源型城市收缩现象尤为突出。应该加强对同类群体共性和模式的研究。我们从人口、经济和空间三个维度构建了城市收缩评价指标体系。在此基础上，采用熵值法、收缩模型和转移矩阵法，从多维角度探讨了中国 175 个资源型城市的时空演变特征。结果表明，中国大多数资源型城市处于非收缩状态，但发展速度逐渐下降，甚至出现停滞。不同维度的收缩测度结果表明，收缩城市的数量在增加。人口、经济和综合收缩水平主要为轻度且保持稳定。中度和重度收缩城市的数量相对较少，且多为短期收缩。空间收缩表现出明显的行政等级差异。此外，收缩城市在各维度的空间分布范围不断扩大，表现出明显的相似特征，即收缩城市在东北地区相对集中，而在其他地区则较为分散。进一步运用地理探测器技术揭示了资源型城市增长和收缩的影响因素。基于研究结果，研究开始时第二产业产值份额的变化是主要因素。2014 年至 2018 年期间，各就业结构指标的影响尤为显著。从多维角度综合探讨这类城市的收缩特征及其发展行为，可为资源型城市的转型和高质量发展提供重要参考。
