National Sports Medicine Program, Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha, QATAR.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2021 Dec 1;53(12):2683-2690. doi: 10.1249/MSS.0000000000002740.
To provide the first scrutiny of adult height prediction protocols based on automated Greulich-Pyle and Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) skeletal ages applied to elite youth soccer players from the Middle East.
We examined the application of modified Bayley-Pinneau (BoneXpert®), TW-II, and TW-III protocols using mixed-longitudinal data available for 103 subjects (chronological age range, 19.4 to 27.9 yr) previously enrolled as academy student-athletes (annual screening range, one to six visits). Random-effects generalized additive models quantified the presence of systematic mean differences between actual versus predicted adult height. Effects were deemed practically equivalent based on the location of the confidence interval (95% CI) against a realistic difference value of Δ = ± 1 cm. Each model pooled residual standard deviation described the actual precision of height predictions and was used to calculate a 95% prediction interval.
The BoneXpert® method overpredicted adult height systematically at chronological ages in the range of approximately 13.5 to 14.5 yr (95% CI range, -1.9 to -1 cm) and Greulich-Pyle skeletal ages between 13.5 and 15 yr (95% CI range, -3.1 to -1 cm). Effects based on TW-II were practically equivalent across the chronological and skeletal age measurement ranges, with this protocol yielding adult height predictions with a precision (standard deviation) of approximately ±2.6 cm. The mean TW-III effects indicated systematic adult height overpredictions until the attainment of 14.5 and 15 yr of chronological age (95% CI range, -3.8 to -1.1 cm) and TW-III skeletal age (95% CI range: -5.2 to -2.3 cm), respectively.
Tanner-Whitehouse-II adult height prediction method provided more consistent estimates and can be considered the method of choice for talent development purposes in youth soccer players from the Middle East.
提供首次基于中东精英青年足球运动员的自动 Greulich-Pyle 和 Tanner-Whitehouse（TW）骨骼年龄的成人身高预测方案的研究。
我们使用可用于 103 名受试者（年龄范围为 19.4 至 27.9 岁）的混合纵向数据检查了改良 Bayley-Pinneau（BoneXpert®）、TW-II 和 TW-III 方案的应用，这些受试者之前被招募为学院学生运动员（每年筛查范围为 1 至 6 次就诊）。随机效应广义加性模型量化了实际与预测成人身高之间存在系统平均差异的情况。根据置信区间（95%CI）相对于实际差异值Δ=±1cm 的位置，认为效应具有实际等效性。每个模型都汇总了描述身高预测实际精度的剩余标准差，并用于计算 95%预测区间。
BoneXpert®方法在大约 13.5 至 14.5 岁的年龄范围内（95%CI 范围为-1.9 至-1cm）和 13.5 至 15 岁的 Greulich-Pyle 骨骼年龄范围内（95%CI 范围为-3.1 至-1cm）系统地高估了成人身高。TW-II 的影响在整个年龄和骨骼年龄测量范围内具有实际等效性，该方案产生的成人身高预测精度（标准差）约为±2.6cm。TW-III 的平均影响表明，直到达到 14.5 岁和 15 岁的年龄（95%CI 范围为-3.8 至-1.1cm）和 TW-III 骨骼年龄（95%CI 范围：-5.2 至-2.3cm），才会出现系统的成人身高过高预测。
Tanner-Whitehouse-II 成人身高预测方法提供了更一致的估计，可被视为中东青年足球运动员人才发展目的的首选方法。
