Siqueira Priscila Carminati, Catão Rafael de Castro, Gava Caroline, Maciel Ethel Leonor Noia, Prado Thiago Nascimento do
Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brasil.
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2021 Oct 15;37(9):e00127620. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00127620. eCollection 2021.
The objective was to analyze the diffusion of cases of yellow fever in time and space in the epidemic of 2017 in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil. An ecological observational study was performed with spatial analysis of yellow fever cases. Georeferencing of information and spatial analysis used the digital grid for the state of Espírito Santo, divided into 78 municipalities (counties), using the Arcgis software, 10.3. Geostatistical analysis was performed using the ordinary kriging function. The study found an incidence of 4.85/100,000 inhabitants of sylvatic yellow fever in Espírito Santo in 2017, with 29.74% case-fatality. Sylvatic yellow fever cases were distributed across 34 of the state's 78 municipalities, representing 43% of its territory. The temporal distribution of reported yellow fever cases in the current study occurred from the 1st to the 19th Epidemiological Weeks (EW). The geostatistical spatial analysis via ordinary kriging demonstrated spatial diffusion by yellow fever contagion among the municipalities in the state of Espírito Santo, with spatial continuity. The disease emerged in the state in the EW 1 through municipalities bordering on the state of Minas Gerais. Geoprocessing showed that yellow fever reached the state of Espírito Santo through the municipalities bordering on the state of Minas Gerais, moving eastward in the state and reaching the Atlantic coastline. There was a higher concentration of cases and persistence in the state's Central and Metropolitan regions, which have areas of Atlantic Forest, showing a pattern of diffusion continuity by contagion.
目的是分析2017年巴西圣埃斯皮里图州黄热病疫情在时间和空间上的病例扩散情况。进行了一项生态观察研究,并对黄热病病例进行空间分析。信息的地理定位和空间分析使用了圣埃斯皮里图州的数字网格,该网格分为78个市(县),采用ArcGIS软件10.3版本。使用普通克里金函数进行地质统计分析。研究发现,2017年圣埃斯皮里图州丛林型黄热病的发病率为4.85/10万居民,病死率为29.74%。丛林型黄热病病例分布在该州78个市中的34个,占其领土的43%。本研究中报告的黄热病病例的时间分布发生在第1至第19个流行病学周。通过普通克里金法进行的地质统计空间分析表明,圣埃斯皮里图州各市之间存在黄热病传播导致的空间扩散,具有空间连续性。该病于第1个流行病学周在与米纳斯吉拉斯州接壤的市中在该州出现。地理处理显示,黄热病通过与米纳斯吉拉斯州接壤的市进入圣埃斯皮里图州,在该州向东移动并到达大西洋海岸线。在该州中部和大都市区病例集中程度较高且持续存在,这些地区有大西洋森林区域,呈现出通过传播实现扩散连续性的模式。