Song Jinyue, Zhang Hua, Li Ming, Han Wuhong, Yin Yuxin, Lei Jinping
College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Insects. 2021 Sep 27;12(10):874. doi: 10.3390/insects12100874.
The red imported fire ant, (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of , combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 10 km in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of .
红火蚁（膜翅目：蚁科）是一种入侵性害虫，已在全球迅速蔓延。预测其在中国的适宜生长区域将为遏制其入侵提供参考依据。本研究基于354条红火蚁地理分布记录，结合24个环境因子，运用优化后的MaxEnt模型和地理探测器模型预测了当前（21世纪）以及未来（2030年代和2050年代）气候情景（SSPs1-2.5s、SSPs2-3.5s和SSPs5-8.5s）下红火蚁在中国的适宜生长区域。采用迭代算法和刀切检验评估当前气候条件下限制适宜区域的重要环境因子。本研究还利用响应曲线确定环境因子的适宜值，以进一步预测气候变化下适宜区域的变化及重心转移。优化后的MaxEnt模型具有较高的预测精度，受试者工作曲线面积（AUC）为0.974。在当前气候条件下，适宜区域面积为81.37×10平方千米，主要位于中国南方和东南部。影响适宜区域的主要环境因子为温度（Bio1、Bio6和Bio9）、降水（Bio12和Bio14）以及归一化植被指数（NDVI）。在未来气候变化情景下，适宜区域总面积将向高纬度地区扩展。这一分布情况将为相关部门快速防控红火蚁入侵提供重要理论依据。
