Lee Cheol Min, Lee Dae-Seong, Kwon Tae-Sung, Athar Mohammad, Park Young-Seuk
California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2800 Gateway Oaks Drive, Sacramento, CA 95833, USA.
Department of Biology, Kyung Hee University, Dongdaemun, Seoul 02447, Korea.
Insects. 2021 Mar 8;12(3):229. doi: 10.3390/insects12030229.
The tropical fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of . Although the potential global distribution area of is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of . through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.
热带火蚁（膜翅目：蚁科）是一种严重的入侵物种，会导致农业产量下降、破坏基础设施并危害人类健康。本研究旨在开发一种使用最大熵（MaxEnt）算法的模型，以在全球范围内预测热带火蚁的当前和未来分布，从而进行有效监测和管理。总共使用了669个热带火蚁的出现地点以及2050年和2100年当前和未来气候变化情景的六个生物气候变量进行建模。年平均温度、年降水量和最干旱季度的降水量是决定热带火蚁分布的关键影响因素。尽管在全球变暖的情况下，热带火蚁潜在的全球分布面积预计会略有减少，但在气候情景下，适宜栖息地的分布预计会向高纬度地区扩展。此外，预计在未来气候变化下，美洲和东亚的一些国家，如巴西、中国、韩国、美国和乌拉圭，将受到热带火蚁入侵的威胁。这些发现有助于通过监测、监视和检疫措施对热带火蚁进行主动管理。
