Predicting the Global Distribution of (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model.

The tropical fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of . Although the potential global distribution area of is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of . through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.