Zhang Hua, Song Jinyue, Zhao Haoxiang, Li Ming, Han Wuhong
College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Insects. 2021 Jan 21;12(2):92. doi: 10.3390/insects12020092.
is a globally invasive pest of eucalyptus plantations, and is steadily spread throughout China. Predicting the growth area of in China is beneficial to the establishment of early monitoring, forecasting, and prevention of this pest. Based on 194 valid data points and 21 environmental factors of in China, this study simulated the potential distribution area of in China under three current and future climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5, SSPs2-3.5, and SSPs5-8.5) via the MaxEnt model. The study used the species distribution model (SDM) toolbox in ArcGIS software to analyze the potential distribution range and change of The importance of crucial climate factors was evaluated by total contribution rate, knife-cut method, and environmental variable response curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to test and evaluate the accuracy of the model. The results showed that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is excellent (area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.982,). The prediction showed that is mainly distributed in Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and surrounding provinces, which is consistent with the current actual distribution range. The distribution area of the potential high fitness zone of in the next three scenarios increases by between 37.37% and 95.20% compared with the current distribution. Climate change affects the distribution of , with the annual average temperature, the lowest temperature of the coldest month, the average temperature of the driest season, the average temperature of the coldest month, and the precipitation in the wettest season the most important. In the future, the core areas of the potential distribution of in China will be located in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan. They tend to spread to high latitudes (Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and other regions).
是桉树人工林的一种全球入侵性害虫，并且正在稳步在中国各地蔓延。预测其在中国的生长面积有利于建立对这种害虫的早期监测、预报和预防。基于中国194个有效数据点和该害虫的21个环境因子，本研究通过MaxEnt模型模拟了该害虫在当前和未来三种气候情景（SSPs1-2.5、SSPs2-3.5和SSPs5-8.5）下在中国的潜在分布区域。该研究使用ArcGIS软件中的物种分布模型（SDM）工具箱来分析该害虫的潜在分布范围及其变化。通过总贡献率、刀切法和环境变量响应曲线评估关键气候因子的重要性，并使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下的面积来测试和评估模型的准确性。结果表明，MaxEnt模型的模拟效果极佳（ROC曲线下面积（AUC）=0.982）。预测显示，该害虫主要分布在广西、广东、海南及周边省份，这与当前实际分布范围一致。在接下来的三种情景下，该害虫潜在高适生区的分布面积相比当前分布增加了37.37%至95.20%。气候变化影响该害虫的分布，其中年平均温度、最冷月最低温度、最干季节平均温度、最冷月平均温度和最湿季节降水量最为重要。未来，该害虫在中国潜在分布的核心区域将位于云南、广西、广东和海南。它们倾向于向高纬度地区（湖北、安徽、浙江、江苏等地区）扩散。
