Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
Parasit Vectors. 2021 Oct 23;14(1):547. doi: 10.1186/s13071-021-05051-3.
Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases.
We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis.
We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA.
Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.
对美洲库蚊属蚊子的地理分布的估计仅限于美国和加拿大的州和省一级，并且基于 20 世纪 80 年代的数据。自这些估计数作出以来，已经有更多关于蚊子的记录观测和新的方法被开发用于物种分布模型。此外，蚊子的分布受到环境条件的影响，这些条件自 20 世纪 80 年代以来已经发生了变化。这需要对这些分布进行更新的估计，以了解新出现和重新出现的蚊媒疾病的风险。
我们使用当代蚊子数据、环境驱动因素和机器学习生态位模型，对北美和南美的七种主要库蚊属蚊子的地理范围进行了更新的估计：库蚊属不规则蚊、库蚊属黑带蚊、库蚊属 pipiens、库蚊属 quinquefasciatus、库蚊属 restuans、库蚊属 salinarius 和库蚊属 tarsalis。
我们发现，库蚊属蚊子在其地理范围上有所不同。每种库蚊属蚊子都对自然和人为影响的环境因素敏感，尤其是气候和土地覆盖类型。有些喜欢城市环境而不是农村环境，有些则限于热带或潮湿地区。许多蚊子分布在美国中部平原各地。
我们更新的当代库蚊属分布图可用于评估蚊媒疾病的风险。了解这些重要疾病媒介的当前地理分布以及构成其分布的关键环境预测因子至关重要，不仅要评估当前的风险，还要了解它们将如何应对气候变化。由于构成蚊子地理分布的环境预测因子不同，我们假设每个物种对气候变化的反应可能不同。
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