Cardona Carolina, Anand Neha Sahai, Alfonso Y Natalia, Leider Jonathon P, McCullough J Mac, Resnick Beth, Bishai David
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA.
Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, USA.
SSM Popul Health. 2021 Sep 30;16:100930. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100930. eCollection 2021 Dec.
Will counties that reallocate money from law enforcement to social services improve subsequent markers of population wellbeing? In this study, we measure the association between county government spending across multiple sectors and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) in the U.S. using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. We constructed a Structural Equation Model to determine whether social expenditure, building infrastructure, and spending on law and order were positively or negatively associated with LEB three-years after initial spending. The analysis compared data between 2002-05 and 2007-10 and was stratified for urban and rural counties. In rural counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in social spending increased subsequent LEB by 0.58 (SE 0.16) and 0.36 (SE 0.16) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In urban counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in building infrastructure spending increased subsequent LEB by 1.14 (SE 0.51) and 1.05 (SE 0.49) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In 2002, a one-standard-deviation increase in law and order spending significantly decreased subsequent life expectancy, 2.2 (SE 1.27) and 0.46 (SE 0.13) years in urban and rural counties, respectively. Similarly, investments in building infrastructure for urban counties and social services for rural counties were associated with subsequently higher life expectancy three years later after initial investments.
那些将资金从执法部门重新分配到社会服务领域的县，会改善随后的人口福祉指标吗？在本研究中，我们利用美国人口普查局的数据，衡量了美国各县多个部门的政府支出与出生时预期寿命（LEB）之间的关联。我们构建了一个结构方程模型，以确定社会支出、基础设施建设以及法律与秩序方面的支出在初始支出三年后与LEB是正相关还是负相关。该分析比较了2002 - 2005年和2007 - 2010年的数据，并按城乡县进行了分层。在农村县，社会支出增加一个标准差，分别在2005年和2010年使随后的LEB增加了0.58（标准误0.16）年和0.36（标准误0.16）年。在城市县，基础设施建设支出增加一个标准差，分别在2005年和2010年使随后的LEB增加了1.14（标准误0.51）年和1.05（标准误0.49）年。在2002年，法律与秩序支出增加一个标准差，在城市县和农村县分别使随后的预期寿命显著降低了2.2（标准误1.27）年和0.46（标准误0.13）年。同样，对城市县基础设施建设和农村县社会服务的投资与初始投资三年后随后更高的预期寿命相关。
